ZOZO Championship Betting Guide
5 Minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Plays | Best Outright Picks
Shriners Recap
Tom Hoge - 4th - Place Payout
Si Woo Tied 8th - Place Payout
Lay Portfolio - £400 Profit from 10 lays | 13% Profit.
Zozo Championship Betting Breakdown.
A select field of 80 makes the journey to Japan for this week’s Zozo Championship taking place at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. Hideki Matsuyama heads over to his homeland to defend his title from last year, Hideki also finished runner-up at this course in 2020, it was notable that year when the field was extremely strong that the best ball strikers in the world held the top 5 places, Rory, Tiger, SungJea and Woodland. I expect we will see something similar this week on a course that rewards world-class iron play.
We don’t have the best field lining up this week, not helped by the fact the CJ Cup is back in South Carolina the following week at Congaree Country Club.
The Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, which first opened its doors in 1965, is a small course with forgiving tree-lined fairways. Two greens per hole are a Japanese practice that arose from a requirement to maintain diverse grasses for changeable weather many years before developments in agrostology. Individual greens, on the other hand, are small, requiring precision short irons and approach shots to set up birdie possibilities. Lines off the tee appear to be rather claustrophobic in this tree-lined layout. There are six doglegs to offer variation, but the rough this week appears to be rather light so could driving distance be more important than accuracy. There are five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes on the course. The par 4’s on the course also vary massively. Some par 4’s measure up over 500 yards and others under 400 yards. Bentgrass is used on the putting surfaces which will be a delight for many of the world’s best ball-striker, they are however tiny in size and well-defended by bunkers, so short-game expertise will play its part. Expect to see another low-scoring birdie feast this fall season. I expect this to be another week where the scores are better than 18 under par. Overall a fun course for the players to get stuck into this week.
Let’s see what we have for this week's key skill sets and picks.
❌Players to Avoid - Best Lays❌
We survived weeks 1 and 2 of the season - Justin Lower gave us a scare in week 1 reaching 5/2 in the betting on the final day. Week 2 was an even bigger sweat as Straka lost in a playoff. Week 3 was a cruise with only NeSmith giving us a little scare but he only traded at 10/1 so compared with weeks 1 & 2 this was an easy watch. MORE of that I hope !!
Week 1 = £360 profit
Week 2= £390 profit
Week 3 = £400 profit
Week 4 = 1. Aaron Wise 2. Kevin Streelman 3 Viktor Hovland 4. Grillo 5. Sepp Straka 6. Mark Hubbard 7. Troy Merrit 8. Russel Knox 9. Lucas Herbert 10. David Lipskey.
Event & Course Details
Course & Event Infomation ;
· Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
· Location: Japan, Chiba.
· Date: Oct. 13 - 16 , 2022
· Par: 70/ Yardage 7,024
· Purse: $9.95 Million / Winner $1.75 million
· Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass
· Greens: Bentgrass
· Previous Winner : Hideki Matsuyama
Scorecard
A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.
🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑
SG T2G- On a course with little to no data to go off it makes sense to start our key skill set required with the ball striking metric of T2G performance. The fall season is now in its fourth week and I want players in my portfolio who have shown each club in the bag is working to a solid standard. Looking at the 2020 leaderboard it appears to me ball striking is the overriding attribute required to thrive at this track.
SG Approach play- It struck me as the single biggest factor this week when looking at the leaderboard from 2020 where Tiger was victorious. The top 10 included Tiger, Rory, Sungjea, Conners, Woodland, Xander and Billy Ho, all of which we associated with great ball strikers.
GIR Gained – 4 of the top 8 players ranked in the top for GIR gained in 2020, I expect similar this week. In addition Given the importance of putting this week, it makes sense to consider players who are hitting plenty of greens in regulation and therefore giving themselves plenty of outside birdie looks and the chance to roll in plenty of putts.
PAR 3 Scoring – 20 Par 3 holes from 72 face the players this week that’s a whopping 28% of all holes played. It makes sense that we focus on this key skill set. This ties into the overall narrative that iron play is the single most important factor this week, well that is certainly how I’m attacking the week.
Putting -This week I will be looking for players that show a tendency to put well on the Bentgrass greens, and when making my final picks I will pay close attention to putting performance.
💣Big Bomb Outsiders to consider 💣
Andrew Putnam 66/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 70/1 Hills 🇬🇧
Arrives of the back of a top 15 last week. Playing some consistent golf right now 9 cuts made form his last 9 events
Gained strokes over the field with T2G performance in 8 of his last 9 events, shows the whole bag of clubs is working
Ranked in the top 10 for GIR gained last week, hitting GIR this week will be a crucial factor.
Gained strokes putting in each of his last 9 events.
A player who is high on confidence and can outrun his huge odds.
Matthew NeSmith 50/1 BetMGM USA 66/1 Hills 🇬🇧
Arrives on the back of a second placed finish last week.
This is a ball striking test and that what NeSmith does best.
Ranked 9TH SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 10th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds on tour.
His putting is his weakness for sure. However, he has gained strokes putting in each of hi last 5 events and last week on his least favorite surface which he encounters again this week. Can he keep the momentum going? At odds like this I’m prepared to find out.
🎯 Top 20 🎯
Sunny Im 1/2 Bet365
Keegan Bradley 21/20 Bet365
Putnam 9/4 Bet365
🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲
Coming Wednesday after the 3 balls draw. Follow on Twitter- Follow Now
For an early look head over to SPORTSPUB
👊 Best Outright Picks 👊
1. Collin Morikawa 16/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 16/1 Unibet 🇬🇧
A Player who fit the bill perfectly for the test ahead. If this week is about Iron play then Collin is our man
Ranked 2nd for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 4th for proximity to the hole over the last 50 rounds, iron play will be crucial this week.
Ranked 7th for par 3 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 8th for SG Ball striking over the past 50 rounds.
On courses with difficult fairways to hit like this week, Collin Ranks No 1 SG T2G.
2. Sungjea Im 10/1 BetMGM 14/1 bet Victor 🇬🇧
3rd at this track on Debut in 2020, the year Tiger Won.
A superb T2G player, the bedrock of his game.
Ranked in the Top 10 for Ball Striking and Proximity to the hole over the last 24 rounds.
Ranked No 1 for T2G Performance over the past 24 rounds on tour
Ranked 7th for SG Par 3 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour, 20 of thmin play this week.
He putts well on the Bentgrass surfaces he faces. Expect to see him in the mix come the back nine on Sunday.
3.Keegan Bradley 28/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 40/1 Betfred 🇬🇧
Best placed 7 here in 2020.
This course puts a huge emphasis on ball striking where Keegan excels.
Ranked 2nd for Proximity to the hole over the past 50 round on tour
Ranked 6th for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour
Ranked 8th for SG T2G over the past 50 rounds on tour, on tracks that have difficult fairway to hit like this week
4. Si Woo Kim 33/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 40/1 SportNation 🇬🇧
Arrives of the back of a top 10 last week, I am willing to give him another go after he return a profit for each way players last week.
One of the best drivers on tour, ranked in the top 20 for fairways gained over the past 36 rounds.
One of the most underrated short games on tour, he has gained strokes vs the field around the green in each of his last 7 events.
Has a top-class iron game, hits plenty of GIR.
The one drawback is his putting, however he raked in the top 20 last week for SG Putting.
2 points Each Way - Collin | Sunny Im
1 Points Each Way - Si Woo | Keegan
0.5 Points - Putnam | NeSmith
Total - 14 Points
Help Gingerbets achieve 1000 subscribers
Gingerbets YouTube channel Click Here Please 👍
Social profiles follow here ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
Apple 🍏 Podcasts - Subscribe Here Now
🎧Google Podcast - Subscribe Here Now
🎧Spotify Podcast-Subscribe Here Now
Please share the preview and link to subscribe with other golf geeks and golf enthusiasts.
Thanks for reading Gingerbets Golf Betting