WGC Match Play - Dell Technologies
Gingerbets betting preview
Event Overview.
The top-64 OWGR-ranked players beginning the week of the competition were indeed listed in the WGC Dell Match Play odds. Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English, and Phil Mickelson were the only five players eligible to participate this year but chose to sit out due to rest or injury. Sebastian Munoz, Keegan Bradley, Robert MacIntyre, Keith Mitchell, and Sepp Straka have secured their places as the best 64 players available this week along with Maverick who has made the field since the withdrawal of last week’s winner Sam Burns.
Format
Round-robin matches are used in the first round of the bracket. Each group consists of four golfers, identical to World Cup group play. The groupings are allocated at random, however, the top-16 players will all be in separate groups. This adjustment was implemented to eliminate premature departures from the world's best, which was a common issue in the previous single-elimination format.
While this makes the initial rounds on Wednesday through Friday a bit more intriguing, the inverted structure has automatically front-loaded all of the excitement to the opening rounds, leaving for a very anti-climactic and achingly long final round unless you are on the winning ticket.
Course
Austin Country Club, like other of Pete Dye's legendary designs we've seen in recent months, is a positional, strategists' course. Water, breezes, undulations on sloping fairways, and deep fairway pot bunkers will all need players to navigate. It still has one of the TOUR's most famous risk/reward holes in the 317-yard Par-4 13th, which, depending on the wind direction, can be a very gettable Eagle opportunity or a surefire way to lose a hole if you come up short in the water.
Video Overview
For those of you who want to get a good read on the course this week, take a look at the video overview below from ProVisulizer.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
• Course: Austin Country Club
• Location: Texas
• Date: March 23-27
• Par: 71 / Yardage 7,108
• Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
• Greens: Bermuda, With Poa Overseed
• Defending Champion: Billy Horschel
Scorecard
Key Skill Sets Required
This is a Pete Dye designed track and therefore you may wish to concentrate your research on stats coming from those venues. I have certainly favoured data from correlating venues when pulling my final thoughts together.
Pete Dye Specialists – Brian Harman, Kevin Kisner, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantley, Adam Scott, BDC. A mix of long of player types tells you that Pete Dye tracks don’t favour one particular style of play.
SG T2G - Heading into this match play event, we want to look for players who are stroking the ball well from tee to green. Those that are in control of their long game will hold a distinct advantage this week as putting and scrambling may see you through one match but not all of the group matches and onto the knockout stages.
GIR gained - Matchplay can be viewed in many ways. I look for players who rarely give holes away and give their opponent easy opportunities. One area to look at when searching for this player type is GIR Gained. Those players who hit a high percentage of greens will be difficult to beat. Making many par’s in matchplay is a great foundation for success.
Bogey Avoidance - One of the key factors in match play golf is not giving away easy holes to your opponent. Look for players who make few mistakes when narrowing down your picks this week. Players like Day, Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner are all players who scramble well, have good putting and make few mistakes with their T2G game. None are explosive players who regularly string 3 -4 birdies in a row together. So don’t get drawn into all the attacking players this week. Steady away with few mistakes has been a solid recipe for success at the WGC match play.
SG Putting Bermudagrass – It’s a match play event this week, which means one thing. Those that can put will never be far away. Putting in this format of the game is such an asset and certainly one you should be considered when narrowing down your portfolio for the week. Previous winners Day, Kisner, Billy Horschel all stand out as top class putters.
Those looking for a snapshot of Matchplay records from all the field then check out this amazing doc by the team over @Tapitin3
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Auo427OCshy2tMEQY8XUOhpQPkE_iwZpm_20Ao_r5VU/edit
Best Outsider to consider
ALL BETS WIN ONLY THIS WEEK FOR ME
1. Seamus Power 100/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 100/1 Hills 🇬🇧
• Ranks in the top 15 for SG putting in the field this week, putting will be a key factor in determining the winner.
• Ranks 7th for SG putting from inside 5ft, a really important factor in Matchplay golf.
• Has performed well over the course of 2022 with his T2G performance, which bodes well for this week a match play.
2. Russell Henley 70/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 Hills 🇬🇧
• 1st in SG Approach play on Pete Dye tracks over the past 24 rounds.
• Gained over 2 strokes per round on the field with approach play at the Players Championship 2 weeks back.
• 5th SG Ball Striking on Pete Dye tracks over the past 24 rounds
• Statistically putts best on the Bermudagrass he will face this week.
• Gained strokes putting vs the field in 6 of his last 8 events.
3. Tom Hoge 80/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 85/1 Bet365 🇬🇧
• Across major skill set areas, off the tee, approach play, short game, putting – Hoge is ranked 4th in this field over the past 24 rounds. Safe to say he is in the most consistent form of his life.
• 8th in SG T2G over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• 1st in Bogey avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour. A solid stat in his favour heading into match play event.
• His putting is the weakest part of his game, but given the irons are so dialed in right now, I’m more than willing to take a punt at huge odds on a course that should play to his strengths.
Best Outright Picks
ALL BETS WIN ONLY THIS WEEK FOR ME
1. Dustin Johnson 20/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 22/1 Hills 🇬🇧
• A previous winner of the Matchplay.
• Ranks 2ND SG Putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• Ranks 4th in SG Putting from 0-5ft which and in the Top 10 for 5-15ft, all of which are key in match play events.
• Signs of a return to form with a TOP 10 at The Players earlier this month, where he gained stokes off the tee, approach and putting, showing the work off course is starting to come through.
2. John Rahm 12/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 14/1 Hills 🇬🇧
• 2 top 5 finishes from just 4 starts at this event.
• Has a very easy group to come through – Reed out of form, Young and Munoz should pose little problems. He could then meet Brooks in the last 16, however, whoever he draws I see Rahm going deep this week.
• 1st SG off the tee on Pete Dye courses over the past 24 rounds, this can lay the foundation for a solid week and his first win of 2022 ahead of the masters
• 1st in ball striking stats across his last 24 rounds & 3rd SG T2G over his last 24 rounds.
• I expect a big week from the world number one ahead of the Major season.
3. Xander Schauffele 20/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 25/1 Hills 🇬🇧
• His group should allow him to come through as the top seed. Finau is out of form badly, and Takumi & Herbert shouldn’t have him running scared.
• His stats at Pete Dye tracks don’t stand off the page, however, has some good recent form at both the Phoenix & Genesis.
• Gained Stroke so approach play in 3 of his last 4 events.
4. Sungjae Im 40/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 45/1 Bet365 🇬🇧
• Performed well in his only match play outings 12month ago in the president’s cup. Wining half his match against a stellar USA lineup
• A player who hits plenty of GIR and ranks in the top 10 in the field in this category.
• 2nd in Bogey avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour, tells the story of a player who will be hard to beat and wont give many freebies to their opponents.
• Gained strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 events.
2 points WIN ONLY all selections
1/2 point Win ONLY on each outsider - 1.5 points.
Total 9.5 points
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