Wells Fargo - Betting Insights
Well Fargo - Course preview, Skill Sets Required & Betting Picks
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⛳️Course preview
✈️Course flyover
🔑Key skill sets required
👊The contenders
🤞The challengers
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Wells Fargo Event Overview.
The Wells Fargo takes place at a new venue but not the first time the PGA Tour has been here to TPC Potomac. TPC Potomac hosted the Tiger Woods Foundation's Quicken Loans National in 2017 & 2018 . It's a course with plenty of professional golf tournament history, located almost opposite its famous neighbour Congressional Country Club, and it proved to be a potent addition to the current PGA Tour, we return this year after a 4 year hiatus. Over the last 12 years, the course has hosted PGA Tour, web.com, and a Senior Major Championship so we know it meets the needs to challenge the worlds best.
A short course by PGA Tour standards but don’t let that lead you into a false sense of security. This course has been likened to a US Open type set up, extremely demanding off the tee with tight and narrow fairways facing the players, the challenge won’t stop there with tough rough and tiny greens to attack with their second shots.
TPC Potomac is short 7,107 yards, many players may have arrived under the false impression that this course could be completely overpowered, but that is not the case. It became clear early on that the Par 70, which got harder and faster throughout the four days, was the difficult course we had anticipated when hosting the Quicken Loans National in 2017/18 . TPC Potomac has only one reachable par-5, and with three of the four par-3s measuring 190 yards or more, the short holes provide little respite. Throw in six par-4s that are over 450 yards long. Green complexes in this area feature Bentgrass and are particularly small, averaging only 4,265 sq.ft, they better bring their short game this week! When Kyle Stanley won his second PGA Tour title here it was done by topping the GIR stats for the week. Kyle missed 17 greens in four rounds, demonstrating that if you want to win around here, you must have a scrambling game to make par when you inevitably miss greens. With a elite field this week I expect the same as tournament organisers set this up to test each and every part of the players game.
This week will be a test of patience and mental aptitude as much as well as a test of skill. I’m extremely excited about this event and it could provide clues to some of the Major championships that are fast approaching. Let’s see if we can dissect the key skill sets required and find the winner.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
Course - TPC Potomac
Yards: 7,160 - Par: 70 (4x 3s / 12x 4s / 2x 5s)
Prize Pool - 9 million / 1.5 million winner
Fairways- bentgrass
Green - bentgrass
Previous winner - Rory Mcllroy
Scorecard
Course Layout
5 Key Skill Sets Required
SG T2G – A short course by PGA TOUR standards but don’t be fooled, it seems this is a real tee to green test testing every club in the bag. The test has even been likened to a US Open, therefore I want to look players with solid T2G stats over the past 24/36 rounds, showing me they will having confidence in their swing on this demanding layout .
Driving Accuracy - All of the reports suggest this is a really challenging test off the tee for players, and when reading player quotes from Quicken loans in 2017 and 18 it appears that driving accuracy is a huge asset. The majority of the quotes state that playing from the fairways is a distinct advantage, as it is the most PGA tour courses but particular here at TPC Potomac.
GIR gained - We can see from previous events held at this course hitting green’s in regulation is a recipe for success. They are extremely small and scrambling will certainly come into play but the player who lifts the trophy comes Sunday evening almost certainly be in the top 10 for greening regulations gained on the week. I want players on side who have shown they are doing this over the past 4/6 weeks.
SG Around the Green/Scrambling - So far we have established the greens are small, it could be like a US Open test and therefore it’s a no brainer to look for players who have a outstanding short game around the greens and scrambling. Whoever wins this tournament will have had to get up and down consistently to survive. We can see that when looking at Kyle Stanley back in 2017 when he led the green in regulation stats missed 17 greens over the four days so despite being the best iron play on the week he still had to battle hard around the greens.
Par 4 Scoring- 12 par 4’s on show this week and only three of them averaging under par on the scorecard during the 2017/18 quicken loans tells us the challenge that faces the players this week. Often it’s par 5 scoring that separates the player on these demanding layouts however there are only 2 of those this week and only 1 of those will be reachable by all the players. For me par 4 scoring will be key. I want to pay particular attention to player who have handle the challenges par 4mover the past 3/4 months of the season.
Best Outsider to consider
1. Steven Jaeger 100/1 + 10000 BetMGM
A killer short game is required this week
8th in SG around the green over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Top 30 in SG scrambling over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Putts his best on bentgrass green which the players face this week.
2. Kevin Streelman 80/1 BetMGM + 8000 BetMGM
A model of consistency off the tee.
12th In fairways gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
1st in SG scrambling over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Gained strokes putting in 3 of the last 4 events, often a weakness in his game
Best Outright Picks
1. Marc Leishman 40/1 + 4000 BetMGM
3rd in Bogey Avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour, his short game is one of the best on tour.
3rd in birdies made over the past 24 rounds, on this challenging test birdies will make up,for the inevitable dropped shots.
5th in SG Total over the past 24 rounds on tour
9th in Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Bubbling under the surface Marc can make an impact on a test that he will enjoy.
2 Tyrell Hatton 33/1 + 3300 BetMGM
9th in SG total over the past 24 rounds on tour
4th in par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds, the challenge of 450 yard + par 4’s won’t faze Hatton. He plays his best golf on these types on tests.
Top 20 in birdies made and bogey avoidance is a great combo to have on your side heading to an event like this.
One of the best putter in the world in a low scoring g perhaps single figure under par test this could prove a key factor.
3 Corey Conners 20/1 + 2000 BetMGM
One of the best drivers of the ball on tour , a tee to green machine.
7th in GIR gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Gaining strokes in all key skill areas over the past 5 events on tour
This is the type of test that Conners will like if he can top the GIR stats which he well capable off he has a live
4 Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1 + 2200 BetMGM
HIs breakthrough PGA Tour win is sure to come some and when it does is most certainly a test like this.
3rd in SG total over the past 24 rounds on tour
5th in birdies made over the past 24 rounds shows his game is firing.
6th in Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
5. Kieth Mitchell 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM
Proven to like tough and demand tests which the players are facing this week.
Top in SG total & SG scrambling over the past 24 rounds on tour is a good combo for this event.
Top 10 in birdies made, a handy asset when bogeys are inevitable.
5 top 20 finishes in his last 7 events, shows the game is in good nick.
1point each way all main selections - 10 points
1/2 point Each Way on each outsider - 2 points
Total 12 points
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