Welcome to Jack’s Place-The Memorial

The Memorial - Full Betting Preview - Key Stats, Big Priced Picks, Best Outright + other Gingerbets nuggets.

May 31, 2022

The Memorial Ultimate Betting Guide.

The Players head to the Muirfield Village this week for The Memorial. Jack Nicklaus envisioned and built Muirfield Village Golf Club this really is a masterpiece. Although the land was purchased in 1966, construction did not begin until July 28, 1972. The golf course spans 220 acres and includes an 11-acre driving range. On Memorial Day, May 27, 1974, the course was officially dedicated with an exhibition match between Nicklaus and Tom Weiskopf. Nicklaus shot a six-under-par 66, which remained the course record until 1979. This week sees an elite level field tee it up and there will be more than a few 66 ‘s on show. This is a venue that brings the best names to the top, Rham, Hideki, Cantley, Bryson, Rose & the GOAT have all had success here in the past.

This course has always been a favourite of players and fans alike, hosting the 1987 Ryder Cup and the 2013 Presidents Cup. It is an original Nicklaus design, and Jack personally oversaw recent course development following the 2020 Memorial Tournament. Nicklaus altered and renovated the course. Muirfield's 18 greens were rebuilt and replanted with bentgrass, and the majority of green complexes were recontoured. Fairway and greenside bunkers have been rebuilt, and the fairways have been resurfaced. A new look Muirfield Village faces the players and the test looks harder than ever looking at the scoring last year.

Muirfield Village, named after the exclusive Muirfield Golf Links in Scotland, where Jack won the 1966 Open Championship, usually requires strong approach play and skills on and around the fast, undulating greens. Longer hitters have an advantage with total driving and distance, and keystrokes gained stats include ball-striking, tee-to-green and short game. Players will be required to move the ball both ways with iron in hand, a signature part of all Nicklaus courses. If the course softens, it will become more of a shootout for approach plays, most other stats will become insignificant. Otherwise, firmer and slicker greens will put emphasis on short game strength, and run-off zones and waste areas will be trimmed shorter to deter errant approaches. Let’s hope for firm and fast conditions it will make for a stunning event much like we had last week at the Charles Schwab.

This is an event all players want on their CV and the course has a habit of allowing the cream to rise to the top. Let’s break down the skill sets required and bring you those all-important outright selections.

Event & Course Details

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION;

Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Location: Dublin, Ohio
Date: June 2 -5 2022
Par: 72 / Yardage 7,543
Purse: $9.1 Million / Winner $1.6 M
Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass / poa annua with Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass, fescu at 3′-4”
Greens: Bentgrass / poa annua
Defending Champion: Pat Cantley

Scorecard

A breakdown of this weeks scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

Course Layout

Video overview of every hole.

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG T2G - What a course we have this week and the foundation to any success here is overall T2G performance. If we look at the finishing leaderboard last year we can see only Homa & Lowry ranked outside the top 10 for SG T2G over the course of the week. This course tests players in every aspect of their game so we need to have players onside who are regularly gaining strokes over their competitors with T2G stats of recent times.

SG Approach Play – As with nearly all Jack Nicklaus courses there is huge emphasis on Approach play here at Muirfield Village. Nicklaus is renowned for making his course 2nd shot venues and this week is no different. 6 of last years Top 10 ranked in the top 10 for approach play over the week.

GIR gained - It has been a theme over the past few week but these tough tracks, especially a Nicklaus design put huge emphasis on the second shot. This week will be no different. We have touched upon it with approach play. The winner has ranked in the top 5 for GIR gained in 5 of the last 7 years. Hitting a high percentage of GIR here at Muirfield sets you up very nicely and that what I’m looking for this week.

SG Around the green – Since the redesign in 2020 the run off areas are even more severe than before, which puts a real added emphasis on short game skills here at Muirfield Village. We can see from the data that Muirfield Village ranks in the top 5 hardest courses on the PGA Tour to get up and down.

SG Scrambling – A stat often mistaken with around the green, scrambling measures a players ability to get up and down when missing a the standard GIR. A player who is and around the green specialist could have horrible scrambling stats. Players will miss greens in regulation 25-35% of the time this week so there will be huge emphasis on scrambling and the players who rise to the top will scramble at a rate of 80% or better on the week.

Bogey Avoidance – With a winning score of 10-15 under par expected this week, mistakes will be costly. Look for players who few mistakes and have patience to attack at the right time and no when to take their foot off the gas and make sensible pars.

📈 Stats that matter 📈

Data were taken from the last 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

SG T2G overall

SG Approach Play

SG Around The Green- Short Game

🤞Best Outsider to consider 🤞

1. Billy Horschell 70/1 +7000 - 80/1 🇬🇧

2 top 10’s here from 7 visit’s.
A consistent driver off the ball who is accurate off the tee, a huge advantage here at Muirfield.
His short game is on point right now, he is ranked 4th for SG scrambling over the past 36 rounds on tour.
A streaky putter, who enjoys the Bentgrass greens, he has won on this surface in the past.

2. Frankie Molinari 200/1 + 20000 225/1 🇬🇧

3rd here on debut in 2015 he has only had to visits to the track.
A really accurate driver of the ball much like Matt Kuchar who has a stella record here.
Ranked in the top 10 for SG around the green over the last 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked in the top 20% for proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards a key distance this week.
His game is improving week on week after an awful 12 months, this test of patience and skill will be in his wheelhouse.

3. Abraham Ancer 80/1 + 8000 80/1 🇬🇧

3 cuts made from 3 visit but no notable finishes to note.
A really accurate driver of the ball, one of the finest on tour.
His ranks 2nd in proximity to the hole from 175 – 200 yards a key distance for him this week, one of the best with long iron and hybrid in hand.
A world class short game, which admittedly has been off of late but all of this is reflected in his very generous odds which I cant see lasting 80/1 both sides of the Atlantic.

Have you?

saved time.
Become more informed.
understood more about how to approach this PGA Championship event.

If 👍 please share this newsletter 🗞 it’s easy ⬇️

Share Gingerbets Golf Betting Insights

🎯 Top 20 🎯

Max Homa 8/5

A winner already this year and in fine and consistent form right now.
A player who has very few weaknesses, a good driver of the ball, an even more accomplished irons player which will be crucial this week.
8th SG Off the Tee over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Top 20 in proximity to the hole and SG T2G over the past 36 rounds .

Rory McIlroy 4/6

4 top 10 finishes here from just 10 events
3 top 10 finishes in a row heading into the event shows his game is in fine fettle.
Ranked 1st in GIR gained over the past 24 rounds on tour, his iron game is on point right now.
Ranked in the top 10 for SG off the tee & T2G performance over the past 24 rounds on tour.
In solid form right now, and on a course that he has performed well, it’s hard to see Rory outside the top 10 this week.

3. Xander - reasons ⬇️ 11/10

4. Sunny Im - reasons ⬇️ 17/10

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

1. SungJae Im 28/1 + 2800 BetMGM 40/1 🇬🇧

Warmed up nicely last week, where he ranked in the top 10 for SG T2G, Approach play, GIR and SG OTT.
Moves the ball comfortably both ways with iron in hand, a must on this Nicklaus layout.
A beautiful driver of the ball and has that part of his game firing again recently after injury.
One of the most underrated short games on tour ranking in the top 20 for SG around the green, scrambling & sand saves over the past 24 rounds on tour.
A player who is destined to win more events on tour and this type of challenge plays to his strengths.

2. Xander Schauffele 16/1 +1600 BetMGM 22/1 🇬🇧

His overall game is in solid shape, gaining strokes consistently in each key skill set, off the tee, approach play, around the green and on the putting surface.
Driving the ball well of late, ranking in the top 15 for Good Drives gained & SG Off the Tee over the past 36 rounds.
His iron game is steady right now gaining over 1 stroke per round over the field in this area over his last 4 events.
The Bentgrass green will be in his favor, he has 2 wins on these surfaces previously. I expect a strong showing from Xander this week.

4. Viktor Hovland 25/1 +2500 BetMGM 25/1 🇬🇧

Finished 3rd here on debut in 2018, this is a course that should play to his strengths.
Drives the ball long and straight, the foundation of his game. Long and accurate driving is a huge advantage here at Muirfield.
Ranked 3rd in SG approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour. If his iron game fires this week, I can’t see him outside the top 10.
Ranked 1st in Proximity to the hole over the past 36 rounds, if he ranks 1st this week, he will be the man they all have to beat.

5. Patrick Reed 45/1 + 45000 BetMGM 50/1 🇬🇧

3 Top 10’s from just the 7 starts shows he is right at home here at Jack’s place.
A solid performance last week with a top 10 on a tough an demanding layout.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG around the green, approach play and T2G performance.
One of the best short games on tour and that’s a key requirement here, especially if the wind picks up and the course plays fast and firm.
Putts his best on the Bentgrass greens he encounters this week.