VALSPAR-GOLF BETTING INSIGHTS
Course preview,skill sets required + big priced & outright tips
Bet Like The Minority
Welcome back to the Gingerbets Golf Betting Insight weekly newsletter after a week’s hiatus. This week I am previewing the Valspar Championship taking place at Innisbrook Resort.
I will follow the usual format where I will preview the course, key skill sets required in order to be successful this week, and lift that trophy on Sunday evening. I’ll give you my thoughts on some of the big-priced outsiders to consider for your DraftKings lineups and as speculative outright selections, plus my YouTube video containing this week’s outright tips. Here is a quick snapshot of this weeks event;
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
Course: Copperhead at Innisbrook Resort
Location: Palm Harbor, FL
Par: 71 / Yardage 7,340
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bermudagrass
2019 winner: Paul Casey
The past winning scores since tell you the story of difficulty here at Innisbrook, and in the last event in 2019, Copperhead averaged 0.981 strokes over par – which ranked as the third toughest golf course on the PGA TOUR. Copperhead rated as the sixth-most difficult course on the PGA TOUR in 2018. 14 of the 18 holes averaged over par since the changes in 2015. I don’t fancy a big upset this week I feel the cream will rise to the top.
The easiest holes are reachable par-5s at No. 1 and No. 11. There are five par-3s, and four of them rank in the top-seven hardest holes on the course. One of them is at No. 17, which is part of the difficult three-hole closing stretch called ‘The Snake Pit’. The two closing par-4s rank as two of the highest bogey percentage holes on the course (22-25%). It going to be a great test this week with a winning score of circa 10-15under par I suspect. Another great feature of this week’s event is that all types of players can win and distance is negated as a key strength which isn’t always the case on the PGA TOUR nowadays.
5 Key Skill Sets
Fairways Gained
SG approach
GIR gained
SG around the green
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (7 holes fall in the region )
3 big priced outsiders to consider
In this section, I’m going to provide insights on three players over 50/1 I feel have a genuine chance of winning this week, great to include in your DraftKings teams, and if looking for a speculative outsider as an outright pick then look no further. All 3 selections lack course form however let me point out Paul Casey had 2 missed cuts in 3 visits prior to back to, back victories in 2018 and 2019 so I have decided this week not to read too much into past form at the track if the stats point me in a certain direction.
1.🥇Keegan Bradley 70/1 - Major champ Keegan is showing a real upturn in form recently and has shown some good consistency over the past 3 months, just take a look at the results in the graphic below. When we 👀 at the skills required this week fairways gained, approach play and decent around the green game then Keegan stacks up well. He is even gaining strokes putting over his last 4 events and I fancy that IFFFFF that trend continues this week he has every chance of running into a place, despite the bang average course form he has from his 5 visits to this track. Not the best in contention it must be said but if he keeps given himself chances he will get it that winner enclosure once more just look what Cink has done this year another Major champ who hadn’t won for a long time until 2021.
3rd in approach over last 50 rounds, 8th fairways gained 9th long-distance approach play, and 24th in SG around the green. Plenty to like 👍.
2.🥈Doug Ghim 110/1 - making his second appearance in the section, it is easy to see why. Just look at his approach play stats in the graphic below. Gaining Stoke with his approach play in each of his last 10 events. It’s fair to say the college prodigy has his iron game dialed in with the very best in the world right now. You will often hear commentary along the lines “ if he gained strokes putting he would win nearly every week”. Doug isn’t at that level yet, however, if he could just gain 1 stroke on the field putting on any given week right now, he is bound to go close to a top 10 finish. I’m not sure he has the experience to win the event, he certainly has the class and skillset to challenge the place payout spots.
3.🥉Lucas Glover 70/1 - In an event that requires patience, experience, and high-quality iron play there is no reason Lucas can’t continue his solid recent run of form. He has had 17 goes at the event with only one top 5 but that’s the risk you take at 70/1. As you can see from the graphic below he can really tear it up with his irons gaining 7 strokes in approach at the Valero Texas Open. If he can gain strokes on the field this week with his irons and on a track that doesn’t require the length of the tee it would be no surprise to see him threaten the top of the leaderboard at 70/1
Bonus Selections for the dreamers
Chez Revie 250/1 - Chez has on paper a great game for this track and that’s backed up by the graphic below, he continuously gains stokes on the field in fairways found and his approach play is pretty hot when dialed in, the reason we are getting 250/1 is simply that he isn’t dialed in right now but at 250/1 he will be getting a 1/4 point each way of my money and will certainly form part of my Draftkings lineups.
💷💶💵 Outright Picks 💵💶💷
I have 4 outright selections this week. To get a glimpse of all 4 you will have to tune into the YouTube video link below. It’s 6 minutes long and will provide solid reasoning behind each of this week’s picks. Tune in 📺⬇️🙏👇🎦
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