Valero Texas Open
Valero Texas Open - Betting Preview
Event Overview.
We are just 9 more nights of sleep away from the most anticipated golf event of the year, The Masters. To warm up we have The Valero Texas Open, a tough long golf course to prep the players for next week.
Only 5 of the world’s top 20 are in attendance this week, mainly this is due to the aforementioned Maters taking place in just 9 days’ time. Is a gruelling test the best preparation for the first major of the year, many think not?
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio was designed by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia's help and opened in 2010. The fairways are narrow, tree-lined, and there are narrow pathways created through oak trees on the course. There are also a few holes with broader fairways that provide many possibilities for a mix of strategic and attacking play.
At TPC San Antonio, the driver is a crucial club, but strength does not always equate to victory, since there is a serious punishment for making mistakes on the Oaks Course. At TPC San Antonio, hitting fairways is tougher than the average PGA Tour event and the challenge doesn’t stop off the tee. Massive bunkers, long natural grasses, and limestone cliffs make it necessary to play from the fairway to access the greens, which are difficult themselves with undulations that lead to tight run off areas putting a premium on short game.
On the front nine, the toughest three scoring holes are holes 9, 4, and 1, which all have a bogey percentage of 25-26 percent on the Oaks course. The bogey rate on holes 12, 13, and 15 is likewise over 20%. Six holes have a bogey rate of over 20%, which gives you an idea of how difficult the course will be this week.
SG: Tee-to-Green is a key stat to look at when looking at Strokes Gained this week. Hitting greens is critical so as we will come onto GIR gained will be a key factor, another critical component this week is scrambling, with larger runoff areas and players finding it more difficult to make fairways, resulting in more greens missed. All in all, this is a tough week ahead for the world’s best players. Let find out what we separate those players come the back nine on Sunday.
Video Overview
For those of you who want to get a good read on the course this week, take a look at the video overview below from ProVisulizer.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
• Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
• Location: San Antonio, TX
• Date: March 31 – April 3 2022
• Par: 72 / Yardage 7,435
• Purse: $7.7 Million / Winner $1.4 M
• Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
• Greens: : Bermudagrass
• Twitter & Hashtag: @valerotxopen
• Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth
Scorecard
Course Layout
Key Skill Sets Required
Driving Distance - A long and demanding test off the tee for the players this week. Playing from the fairways is an advantage any week on tour, however, on this track of significant importance is length off the tee setting up shorter irons into this challenging green complexes. Distance also help on the long Par 5’s which range from 560 to 620 yards.
SG T2G - As with many of the difficult tests on tour it’s imperative you have your overall T2G game firing and this week is certainly one of those weeks where the whole bag of clubs from driver through wedge will need to cooperate. I will be searching for players who have their T2G game in good shape. It’s unlikely out of for, players will click into shape of this layout, in fact quite the opposite. Any weaknesses in the T2G will be exposed this week.
SG approach 100-150yards - plenty of approach shots will come from this distance and it’s worth noting that the Oaks course is one of the hardest on tour from inside 150 yards. Look for players who are particularly dialled in with the short iron in hand as when the scoring opportunities present themselves they must be taken.
Sand saves - With the greens being particularly hard to hit this week for all players even the best T2G exponents, it’s worth noting players who excel from the sand. This course has tight run off areas and well-placed bunkers. The bunkers are some of the hardest to get up and down from on tour. When looking to fine tune your portfolio for the week this could be one killer stat that helps narrow down your field.
GIR gained - We can tell from the data, hitting greens in regulation here is significantly harder than in the standard PGA Tour event. Look for players who pepper greens time and time again. Hitting a high percentage of GIR is the key to success here at the Oaks course.
SG around the green - A long course with hard to hit greens means one thing. There will be plenty of scrambling needed from all the players this week and come the back nine on Sunday it will be those that have done it best that will be challenging for the title. Tough run off areas is the order of the day and tournament hosts try to replicate a similar feel to Augusta National for the players.
Best Outsider to consider
1. Robert MacIntyre 66/1 BetMGM 80/1 Unibet
• Ranks 1ST in SG Scrambling over the last 24 rounds on tour, sure to enhance his confidence levels going into this week on a course that will demand you play well around the greens
• Ranks 2nd in Bogey Avoidance over the past 24 rounds.
• 11th in GIR gained over the past 24 rounds on tour, GIR will be of huge importance this week.
• 7th SG around the green over the past 24 rounds
• All the stats say we should expect a strong showing from Bobby Mac this week.
2. Jonny Vegas 55/1 BetMGM 50/1 Hills
• Arrives in solid form after a 4th place finish at the Puntacana event last week.
• 5th in GIR gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• Top 20 in Par 5 scoring on holes of 550+ yards of which there are 4 each day this week
• Has the power to dominate this golf course.
3. C T Pan 100/1 BetMGM 125/1 Paddy Power
· Sits 4th in SG around the green in this field. SG around the green will be crucial this week
· 5th in SG sand saves over the past 24 rounds, getting up and down from the sand here is more difficult than most so he should gain plenty of confidence from his recent stats.
· Top 20 for GIR gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
· 11th in PAR 5 scoring on 600+ yard holes of which there are 2 this week.
· Has the required skill sets to make a challenge come Sunday evening.
Best Outright Picks
1. Rory Mcilroy 8/1 BetMGM 15/2 Hills
· 2nd on his one and only visit here in 2013
· The number 1 T2G performer over the past 24 rounds in this field
· Top 5 in Par 5 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour, a key stat this week at the Oaks course
· Top 5 in birdies made over the past 24 rounds on tour showing his game is in a solid place albeit not as consistent as he would like
· Has the ability to dominate this field on a long and challenging course that will be to his liking.
2. Si Woo Kim 40/1 BetMGM 40/1 Unibet
· 4th here in 2019
· Real consistency in his game right now, making 9 cuts in a row with 4 top 20 finishes
· Gaining strokes in all key areas over his last 10 events on tour, T2G, off the tee, approach play.
· Has a very underrated short game, and is one of the best scramblers on tour over the last 12 months
· This week is a test of all clubs in the bag and Si Woo has been performing well with them all for the last 2 months. I expect a really strong showing if he turns up in the right frame of mind.
3. Gary Woodland 33/1 BetMGM 35/1 Hills
· 6th here last year when out of form, he arrives this week with a huge upturn in form over the past month.
· A return to form over the last month has seen the former US Open champ with 2 top-five finishes in his last 4 starts.
· He is dialled in with his T2G game right now along with his approach play, both of which provide a solid foundation to attack this week’s event.
· His short game is on point in the top 10 for Scrambling & Bogey Avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour.
· Top 10 on long Par 5’s form 550-600 yards, another key stat this week
· These challenging layouts play to Woodlands strengths, and I expect him to be challenging the top of the leader board come the final round on Sunday.
4. Chris Kirk 40/1BetMGM 50/1 Unibet
• In some of the most consistent form of his career, with 2 top 10’s in his last 3 starts.
• 6th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds on tour, will not be fazed by the tough challenge ahead this week.
• 2ND Par 5 scoring form 550-600 yards.
• Top 20 SG around the green over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• His game is solid right now and he has had tough luck on the back nine in recent events of which he could have won. I expect him to be a good position come Sunday to take a run at lifting this trophy
2point WIN ONLY Rory
1point each way all main selections
1/2 point Each Way on each outsider - 3 points
Total 11 points
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