The Valspar Championship
Gingerbets Betting Insights
Event Overview.
This tournament is held at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida, on the difficult Copperhead course.
The course, a 7,340-yard Par 71, is tight off the tee, but unlike other typical Florida courses, the Larry Packard design features tree-lined fairways, elevation changes, and dog-leg holes. Copperhead achieves this somewhat unusual layout by including four par-5s and five par-3s, which is unusual for a Par 71 course. The course also includes 'The Snake Pit,' which consists of holes 16 to 18, and adds a real bite to the final stretch, especially on Sunday. The player who steps up over the weekend play on 16 through 18 will have a decent chance of being victorious come Sunday night.
The course near Tampa underwent a renovation in 2015, which included regressing the entire course with Bermudagrass, reshaping all bunkers, and rebuilding the greens. The winning scores since telling the tale of difficulty, with Copperhead averaging 0.981 strokes over par in the last event in 2019 – ranking as the third toughest golf course on the PGA TOUR that year. In 2018, Copperhead was ranked as the sixth-most difficult course on the PGA TOUR. After last week's treacherous Players Championship, there looks to be little rest bite for the players.
Historically, the Copperhead course has been a test of iron play. Players who can shape the ball in both directions with Ball Striking precision and approach play have the best chance of success. Golfers are forced to play on very narrow fairways lined with pine trees. So Accuracy from the tee is required to compete at Copperhead, and Fairways Gained is a stat to add to your search but not a must have. People will bang the drum this week regarding the accuracy, however, 4 of the last 5 winners have ranked outside the top 50 for driving accuracy over the course of the week. Distance from the tee is not required, but patience and precision are. Look no further than Jim Furyk, a short-hitting, determined veteran who isn't in the field this year but ranked third in Strokes Gained: Approach, Around the Green, Ball Striking, and Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds at Copperhead. Paul Casey, a two-time champion, is top five in approach over his last 16 rounds at Copperhead and top 20 in all other key strokes gained stats. The top performances are shown in the Key skill stats section below.
This is a course that will test patience and skill equally. If we’re to take the players quotes over the past few years as a solid guide, then ball striking and iron play is the single most important factor. This is the ability to control both the ball trajectory and the shot shape. This is the must have skill set to contend this week at the Valspar.
Video Overview
For those of you who want to get a good read on the course this week, take a look at the video overview below from ProVisulizer.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
Course: Copperhead at Innisbrook Resort
• Location: Palm Harbor, FL
• Date: April 18 - 21 2022
• Par: 71 / Yardage 7,340
• Purse: $6.9 Million / Winner $1.2 M
• Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
• Greens: : Bermudagrass
• Twitter & Hashtag: @ValsparChamp
• Defending Champion: Sam Burns
Key Skill Sets Required
Good Drives Gained – It is no doubt advantageous to be playing from the short stuff on the difficult driving track, here at the Valspar. Look for players who have shown a tendency to hit fairways regularly in recent times. However, don’t get too hung up on it if your player is a little wayward. 4 of the last 5 winners have ranked outside the TOP 50 for fairways found that given week. That’s why I want to look at good drives gained over just accuracy and encourage you to do the same. This is one of the most difficult driving venues the players encounter all year
SG Approach – this really is a ball strikers’ course and the ability to move the ball both ways with iron in hand will be hugely advantageous to players this week. Previous winners like Paul Casey Adam Hadwin and Charl Schwartzel or spring to mind as superb iron players but maybe not so much with the putter or the driver in hand, you can add Streelman and Speith to that list of top class iron players both have also won here in the past.
SG Approach 175-200 – Over 20% of all shots will come from 175-200 yards this week, longer hitters such as DJ, Kokrak ect, you may want to look at 150-175 as their extra yards from the tee box may push them into that range from approach shots. This is a key distance this week. The doglegs on the course mean even the longest hitter on tour must play for position off the tee forcing them all into long iron approaches.
GIR Gained – 4 of the last 6 winners have ranked in the TOP 10 for GIR on that given week. On this tough and technical track, the importance of hitting GIR is emphasized somewhat.
Par 3 Scoring – A par 71 layout with, yes, 5 par three holes. Given the fact, players will play 20 holes this week on par 3’s it makes sense to consider those that excel in this area.
Par 5 Scoring - The Par 5’s are usually very easy on the PGA TOUR for the elite players. Not so much this week. The set of four are some of the hardest on tour with the 600 yard 5th hole playing to PAR. We often see the par 5 average ½ a stroke under par that’s not the case for any of the quartet this week. The player who lifts the trophy Sunday will have to dominate these Par 5’s.
SG Around the Green – looking at the more recent results at the Valspar it’s apparent that gaining strokes around the green is advantageous on these tough and technical tracks players will inevitably miss the greens and rely on their short games to compete.
Stats that matter
These are the killer stats for this week. Below ⬇️ you will see screen shots of the top 25 players in each category. Sure to help you with your own thoughts when looking to make your final selections. This is also a useful resource for those playing fantasy golf with DraftKings in the 🇺🇸 Or 🇬🇧.
Approach Play
Par 5 scoring
Par 3 scoring
Best Outsider to consider
1. . Mito Pererira 150/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸
8th in SG Par 5 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
8th in GIR Gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
3rd in Bogey avoidance and 4th in SG scrambling over the pas 24 rounds on tour.
A good week with the flatstick will surely see him challenge the top of the leader board come Sunday
2. Brendon Grace 200/1 - BetMGM 🇺🇸 200/1 8 places 🇬🇧
Best placed 8th here in 2018
Top 20 in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards over his last 24 rounds shows his long iron game isn’t lacking.
Top 20 Par 4 scoring on 400-450 yard hole of which there are 5 each day
A tough track which tests both patience and skill levels will be one grace relishes
3.Andrew Putnam 225/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 200/1 8 places 🇬🇧
Top 10 in SG approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
From the key distamce of 175-200 yards, he ranks 6th in this field over the past 24 rounds
He has solid if not spectaluar stats across GIR. PAR 5 scoring and scrambling.
His odds are to big on a test that should suit.
4. Brian Harman 75/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 70/1 8 places 🇬🇧
A world class player of the tee will set him up well this week he ranks in the top 10 for good drives gained over his past 12 rounds tour.
Sits in the Top 10 for SG par 4 scoring on holes from 400-450 yards of which there are 5 this week. 20 holes will fall in this distance and he has excelled here in recent times.
Gained stroker with approach play in 3 of his last 4 events, which will be a key skill here this week.
Best Outright Picks
1. Shane Lowry 25/1 - BetMGM 🇺🇸 28/ 1 Hills 8 places 🇬🇧
Arrives on the back of 3 Top 20’s in a row across all Tours
Gaining over 1 stroke per round with his iron play across his last 4 events
1st in Par 4 scoring on 400-450 yard holes of which there are 5 each day
Top 10 in SG approach play, par 5 scoring and bogey avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour. Lots to like about his chances this week
2. Abraham Ancer 28/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 Hills 8 places 🇬🇧
A return to form at The Players, gaining strokes against the field in all key skill areas, off the tee, approach play, T2G, Around the green and Putting
5th here last year, this the type of layout that suits his game.
Top 20 in par 3 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour
Top 20 in scrambling , good drives gained & par 4 scoring. A bold showing is expected at fair odds.
3. Louie Oosthuizen 20/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 22/1 8 places 🇬🇧
3 top 10’s at this event in his last 4 visits, shows his liking for the course.
Arrives of the back of a solid finish at the players.
Top 20 in proximity to the hole from 150-175 & 175-200 Yards.
Top 20 in Par 5 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Top 20 GIR gained
Can shape the ball both ways at will off the tee and with iron in hand. Can this be the week Louis makes his PGA Tour breakthrough.
4. Frankie Molinari 110/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 100/1 8 places 🇬🇧
Shown signs of gaining form with 6 cuts made in a row, something that wasn’t in his game in 2021
1st in Par 3 scoring there are 5 of them each day.
Top 20 in SG scrambling over the past 24 rounds on tour
A solid driver of the ball which will give him an advantage over the field this week.
5. Adam Hadwin 60/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 66/1 8 places 🇬🇧
Previous winner here and arrive of the back of solid top 10 at The Players, which is the strongest field of the year.
Top 10 in Par 3 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranks in the top 20 for Good Drives Gained & Bogey Avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour, both will be important if he is to challenge come Sunday.
His putting is I a good place a gaining over 1 stroke per round at The Players last week
1 point EW all selections
1/2 point each way on each outsider - 4 points.
Total 14 points
Don’t forget it would be amazing if you could share this content to get me more followers it’s simple just click 👇 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾👇🏿👇🏿
Don’t forget to hit that 👍 button on the YouTube video all your support is needed so please do hit the like and leave a comment or 2.
Help Gingerbets achieve 500 subscribers
Gingerbets YouTube channel Click Here Please 👍
Please subscribe to YouTube & other socials
If I could ask one thing of my subscribers it would be to share the preview and subscribe to YouTube by clicking the link below 👇 and following on Twitter, Cheers 🍻 guys really appreciate the support 🥳
Apple 🍏 Podcasts - Subscribe Here Now
🎧Google Podcast - Subscribe Here Now
🎧Spotify Podcast-Subscribe Here Now
Please share the preview and link to subscribe with other golf geeks and golf enthusiasts.