The Honda Classic
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🏆Event Preview
⛳️Course Preview
🔑Key Skill Sets Required
📊Stats Pack
2️⃣0️⃣ Top 20 Picks
🍀 Best Outsiders to Consider
🏌️💰Best Outright Picks
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Event Overview.
Welcome to PGA National, a brute of a golf course where elite level ball strikers holds distinct advantage. Following Eminem’s performance at the SuperBowl it make sense to ask ‘will the real T2G experts please stand up’.
The Champions Course was created by George and Tom Fazio in 1981 and has been remodelled by Jack Nicklaus on several occasions, the most recent being in 2018. The Golden Bear's tracks may be found on the course, with the signature 'Bear Trap' holes 15-17. The 🐻 trap begins with a short-iron par 3 with water on the right. No. 16 is a dogleg right par 4 with water on the right, while No. 17 is another short par 3 with water on the right. A lengthy par 5 on the final hole provides a nice birdie opportunity to round out the round. On the Champions course, water comes into role on 13 hole, danger everywhere for the players this week. Only twice in the last 9 years has the winning score reached 10 under par or better. Only the 2 par 5’s have a scoring average under par at PGA National that gives you an insight facing the players this week.
The course is considerably harder on the back nine, with 6 of the 9 hardest holes falling on that stretch. This is something to bare in mind when looking at first round leader markets as those starting in the 10th maybe broken when they reach the 1st hole their back nine.
As well as the back nine throwing up a brutal test the players must contend with some of the hardest par 3 holes on the PGA Tour. In 5 of the last 6 seasons these have ranked in the top 3 hardest courses on tour.
All green complexes had been redesigned, with larger 7,000 sq.ft. average putting surfaces. All of the greens featured new TifEagle Bermudagrass turf, which replaced the old TifEagle surfaces. These surfaces have very subtle undulations to them but rank as some of the easiest on tour. This week is about the T2G game more so than those that excel with the flat stick in hand.
The Champions Course has been the toughest non-major Par 70 course on the PGA Tour for 5 of the last 8 seasons, golf season is now upon us after the west cost swing where the scoring and course are less demanding.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
Course: PGA National (Champions Course)
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Date: March 24-27, 2022
Par: 70 / Yardage 7,125
Purse: $7 Million / Winner $1.26 M
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass and rough overseed with ryegrass
Greens: : Bermudagrass
Defending Champion: Matt Jones -12 under par.
Key Skill Sets Required
SG T2G -One of the most difficult courses the players face all year with a real emphasis on T2G performance. The wind can blow here in Florida, and that puts even more pressure on players games from tee to green. The player who lifts the trophy come Sunday evening will undoubtedly gain strokes on the field T2G. Putting won’t be much of a factor this week this is the one event to consider those elite level T2G players with inconsistent flat sticks.
SG Approach - Iron play is essential this week, there is no way the winner of this event will be giving up shot to the field with their irons. One of the hardest the player face all year from 150 yards out. Players will hit on average 60% of GIR this week, this demonstrates the importance of excelling with irons hitting lots of green and hitting it close when the opportunity presents itself.
SG 150-200 Yards- This week it’s all about the ball striking and mid-long iron play in particular. One of the few weeks on the PGA Tour where you can look at elite level ball strikers and forget about their inconsistent putting, for once this is all about then other clubs in the bag. 150 yards to 200 yards distance will be key this week as there is a high majority of shots expected from this range, a lot more than the average PGA tour event. This course ranks in the hardest three each and every year for approach play from 150 to 200 yards.
SG scrambling - Only 4 holes this week average under par and that usually means that the players will have their work cut out hitting green after green, if the wind gets up which it can in Florida expect scrambling to become one of the most important factors on the week. This is a tough and demanding track regardless of the conditions even in the most benign ones. Challenging par 4’s and long par 3’s mean players will certainly have to battle for par at times throughout this event. In the last six renewals of this event the champion has ranked in the top 10 for scrambling on that given week.
Par 3 Scoring- In six of the last seven years par-3 scoring at this event as ranked in the hardest three courses on the whole of the PGA tour circuit. The par-3’s here really test your mid to long iron game, and this is a theme throughout the whole course. When narrowing down a field we want to consider players who excel on long demanding par 3’s. All the par 3’s at PGA National average over par year in year out and are over 175 yards in distance
Stats that matter
These are the killer stats for this week. Below ⬇️ you will see screen shots of the top 25 players in each category. Sure to help you with your own thoughts when looking to make your final selections. This is also a useful resource for those playing fantasy golf with DraftKings in the 🇺🇸 Or 🇬🇧.
SG data across key areas, approach, off the tee, around the green
Proximity to the hole
Par 3 scoring
Best Outsider to consider
1. David Lipsky 125/1 BetMGM
3rd in proximity from 175-200 yards of all players in the field this week.13th in approach play over the past 36 rounds.
At difficult scoring events like this he ranks in the top 10 for SG T2G, Ball Striking, Par 5 scoring, Bogey Avoidance , statistically he has the game to go well here, has he got the mentality?
Can shape the ball with comfort both ways from the tee box and with irons in hand, a key a attribute required this week.
2. Matthew NeSmith 125/1 BetMGM
Incredible really - 4th in this field for SG Approach Play in the last 50 rounds.
He ranks 8th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards a key distance this week.
He ranks top 20 for proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards a key distance this week.
He has the iron game to challenge the places come the back nine on Sunday.
4. Aaron Rai 80/1 BetMGM
Top 20 in SG approach play in the last 36 rounds on tour.
Top 20 Proximity to the hole over the past 36 rounds on your.
Top 20 SG off the tee in the past 36 rounds.
Top 20 SG T2G over the last 36 rounds on tour.
Streetwise to the tougher scoring event on the European Tour, can make his present felt.
4. Bronson Burgoon 250/1 BetMGM
3rd in SG par 3 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour
3rd in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards a crucial distance this week, with more shot than average coming from this range.
Top 20 SG approach Play over the last 50 rounds on tour.
Top 35 in bogey avoidance which will be crucial on this stern test.
A huge price can outrun his odds
Best Outright Picks
YouTube video out Wednesday
1. Louis Oosthuizen 18/1 - BetMGM
3rd in approach play in the last 36 round on difficult scoring courses.
2nd T2G on difficult scoring tracks over the past 36 rounds.
Top 15 for SG scrambling, bogey avoidance.
Still seeking his frost PGA tour win, we have seen a few first time winner already this year and this test is right up his street he seems to always challenge on demanding T2G tests.
2. Brooks Koepka 20/1 BetMGM
2nd here in 2019
The test here will really suit Brooks the emphasis on T2G green performance is exactly the type he likes. He will be hungry to get a win before the masters and this provides the ideal opportunity. For some time now I’ve been expecting him to win a standard PGA Tour event by 3/4/5 strokes and this could easily be the week.
3rd in approach play in the last 50 rounds at tough scoring events.
2nd SG T2G over the past 50 rounds at tough scoring events.
6th SG off the tee on demanding tracks , if Brooks arrive with the right mind set this is an event he has to go close to winning.
3. Keith Mitchell 33/1 BetMGM
Arrives here in solid consistent form, also a previous winner at the track
Putts well on the Bermuda he faces this week.
1st in SG off the tee over the past 24 rounds on hard scoring tracks, also first in scrambling over the past 24 round on hard scoring tracks.
3rd in Par 3 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour, a critical factor this week will be how player adjust to these and par 3’s all over 175 yards in length.
3rd in Bogey Avoidance over the past 24 rounds, lots to like about Mr Mitchell’s chances this week.
4. Jonny Vegas 50/1 BetMGM
Best placed 4th here 2017
3rd in Ball Striking in this field on difficult scoring tracks.
7th in SG T2G on hard scoring tracks over the past 50 rounds on tour
1st SG off the tee on tough and demanding tracks over the past 50 rounds on tour.
He best strokes gained performances have come on difficult scoring tracks like he faces this week.
5. Mito Pereira 45/1 BetMGM
Top 20 in SG par 3 scoring , Bogey Avoidance & proximity to the hole from a key distance of 175-200 yards.
Top 20 last week on a tough layout at Riviera.
Ranks in the top 20 in my final models for the week , can we have Chilean’s winning back to back , it’s possible in my eyes.
2point win only brooks
1 point EW all selections
1/2 point each way on each outsider - 2 points - Casey also main pick
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