The American Express
Gingerbets Betting Preview
Welcome
2022 hasn’t yet gone off with a bang, but we are knocking on the door with another full place payout in Kevin Kisner at 35/1 meaning a very small loss on the week for outright selections.
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🏆Event Preview
⛳️Course Preview
🔑Key Skill Sets Required
📊Stats Pack
2️⃣0️⃣ Top 20 Picks
🍀 Best Outsiders to Consider
🏌️💰Best Outright Picks
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Event Overview
The Desert Classic is always a unique proposition on the PGA Tour because of its three-course rotation. The TPC Stadium Course (Host Course) and Tournament courses at the PGA West site host three of the four rounds. The final round is played on the TPC Stadium course, which has 36 holes. The third course in the tournament rotation, La Quinta Country Club, is a 5-mile drive away. With three short Par-72 courses boasting exceptionally responsive and pure TifDwarf Bermudagrass green complexes, this event is the quintessential resort course test. Go low or go home as they say.
The Pete Dye-designed TPC Stadium host course is widely regarded as the spiritual successor to TPC Sawgrass' Stadium Course. The course has its own island 17th hole, which this week will be a 165-yard par-3. The course is a Par 72 with a lot of water. Ranked in the 10 easiest courses the players face all year this course is there for the taking if playing well, then we have the Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club which can both be dismantled by the best players on tour.Both of these courses were rated as the easiest and second-easiest on the PGA Tour in recent times.
From a research standpoint, it's an odd week when we get to these "quirky" events with insufficient SG data. You must embrace the randomness and run some simplified, broad models for commonality across the three courses in play and then hold tight for what will be a hard week to fathom. Lets take a look at some of the previous winners. Over the past decade, Adam Long, Andrew Landry, Brian Gay, Bill Haas, and Mark Wilson have all won , these are not names you associate with the top names in golf.
We will break down the key skill sets a little later in the piece, there is some guesswork this week. Look for players who thrive on easy layouts and have a flat stick that’s in good order. Without a good flat stick, this week will see you hovering in the middle of that leaderboard.
This is a great week to look at those players making their way up from the Korn Ferry or indeed seeking a breakout performance. There will be little to no stress on the player’s games this week it will all be about aggressive golf hunting targets and making as many birdies as possible. This is the week to pick those long shots we all have a tendency to look at. The player pool capable of winning this week is much greater than it will be in 2 weeks time when we head to the farmers’ insurance open.
Event & Course Details
Course: PGA West Stadium Course, La Quinta, PGA west Tournament Course
Location: La Quinta, CA
Date: Jan. 20-23
Par: 72 / Yardage 7,113 West/ Par 72 - 71,159 Tournamnet / La Quinta 70,060 Par 72
Purse: $1.6 Million / Winner $1.2 M
Fairways/Rough: Tifgreen bermudagrass
Greens : Tifdwarf bermudagrass
Twitter & Hashtag: @theamexgolf
Defending Champion: Si WOOOOOOO.
5 Key Skill Sets Required
SG T2G Easy Tracks - When looking at SG T2G this week I will pay particular attention to short course sub 7200 yards in length as all 3 fall in the category this week. I will also be looking at those who thrive on an easy layout as this week the players face 3 of the easiest course on the PGA Tour rotation.
Bogey Avoidance - A 3 rotation course, super low scoring, birdies galore. All this tells us that making bogeys will be a big NO NO this week. Usually, a stat that correlates well with tougher courses I believe this is an underrated factor this week.
SG Approach 75- 125 yards - You will need to have plenty of birdie looks this week if you wish to take home the trophy. One way to ensure that is to hit plenty of shots close to the flagstick. This has been the most important factor in contending at this event in recent times. To dig a little deeper I noticed that more shots from 75-125 yards come up here than on average and therefore I want to look at approach play in more detail from this range.
Par 3 Scoring - Very relevant at the Stadium course which is used for 36 holes of this event. Also a key factor at the other 2 courses on the rotation this week. The winner of this event in the past has certainly excelled with mid-irons in hand.
SG Putting on Bermudagrass - This has been this key factor in lifting this trophy no doubt about it. Winning scores of 26, 25, 22, 29 under par, it goes without saying you have to sink your putts this week.
Stats that matter
Strokes gained approach 75 - 125 Yards
SG Putting
Par 3 scoring
Best Outsider to consider
All Each Way bets for those looking for a big priced payout, also useful additions to those playing fantasy games over in the USA.
SHORT 2 Minutes explaining one of my best big priced players.
1. Russell Knox 90/1 BetMGM- 100/1 Betfred 7 places
Come in off a Top 10 at the Sony Open
Finished with positive putting performance last week, sometimes this has held him back on Bermuda grass.
3 Top 20’s at the event in the past
4th SG Proximity to the hole over the past 36 rounds from 75-100 yards
11th Par 3 scoring over the past 36 rounds
Ranks in the top 15 for my model this week.
2. Gary Woodland 90/1 BetMGM- 80/1 8 places Skybet
Second here in 2011.
6th in birdies gained over the past 36 rounds onto a key factor this week.
Top 20 in opportunities gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
3. Brian Harman 80/1 Fanduel - 80/1 Paddy Power 8 places
2 Top 10 finishes at this event from his past 5 visits.
Putts best statistically on the Bermuda greens he faces this week.
Gained strokes putting in 5 of his last 6 events.
One of the best players on tour for bogey avoidance.
Slightly out of form but this is reflected in his generous price.
Best Outright Picks
1.Pat Reed 33/1 BetMGM/ Fanduel - 8 places
4 wins on Bermuda grass putting surfaces, no player has more wins on this grass from this week’s field.
Previous winner of the The American Express
Wide fairways this week negate his driving frailties
Top class wedge players from 75-125 yards
Won the farmers early in 2021 will be looking to repeat this one week earlier in 2022 ahead of his defence.
2. Justin Rose 🌹 60/1 Unibet USA / 60/1 Unibet 6 places
2 Top 10 finishes at the event albeit over 10 years ago.
Statistically he sets up well this week. Play Donald Ross courses really well and we have 36 holes on that layout this week.
Top 10 SG T2G & Birdies made on easy tracks over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Sits in the top 15 in my model for the week.
3. Brendon Steele 125/1 Fanduel- 125/1 Paddy Power 8 places
Has top 5 finishes previously after long layoff like he faces here. 2nd and 4th at the Sony Open in 2020 & 21.
Has 2 previous Top 10 finishes at this event.
Top 10 player over the past 36 rounds for Par3 scoring.
Top 15 player for opportunities gained which will be important at this low scoring event, these are the events he has excelled in.
4. Christian Bezuidenhout 50/1 BetMGM - 66/1 Unibet 50/1 Hills
Back to Back week for this guy. A world class putter who putts best statically on Bermuda grass greens we face this week
Gained Stokes on Approach and Putting last week with a top 20 finish.
Top player from 100-125 yards a key distance this week.
Top 20 player for bogey avoidance.
5. Brian Harman 80/1 Fanduel - 80/1 Paddy Power 8 places
2 Top 10 finishes at this event from his past 5 visits.
Putts best statistically on the Bermuda greens he faces this week.
Gained strokes putting in 5 of his last 6 events.
One of the best players on tour for bogey avoidance.
Slightly out of form but this is reflected in his generous price.
1 point each way on all selections - 10 points in total
1/2 point each way on each outsider - 2 points ( Harman also main selection )
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