The Masters
Masters - Betting Preview
Event Overview.
The Masters is one of world golf's four major events. It is the first event of the year, as well as the only one on the circuit that is hosted at the same place each year: Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia.
The course is the most picturesque and well-kept piece of golfing land in the world, yet Alister Mackenzie's design is a highly specialised test that pushes players to their limits.
Augusta National plays to a par 72 and 7,435 yards but plays longer due to a number of uphill holes and the grain of the fairways pointing back towards the tee boxes meaning length is a huge advantage. The course is still largely forested, with each hole named after a flower, plant, or tree, I'm sure we will hear plenty about this over the next 7 days.
Course history, current form, and key statistics are all important topics of research for any golf event, but they are especially important for the Masters. Course history is more important than everywhere else since it is the only major that is played at the same venue each year and against a similar strength of field. The same statistical areas apply each year, but remember to consider a golfer's historical success in those numbers in conjunction with their most recent play.
Understanding the course, as well as knowing how to play the holes and where to position shots, is critical for success at Augusta. Familiarity with the greens is also important, which is why players with less experience on the course typically do not do as well. Forecasting players putting week to week, on the other hand, might be challenging. While longer hitters have an advantage and playing the par 5s well under par is essential, precise ball striking, quality irons and approach play, and putting are the keys to winning. The bentgrass greens are lightning fast, with run-off areas, slopes, and numerous layers putting a real premium on short game skills. Think Tiger, Speith, Phil, and Speith all have excellent short games.
This is the ultimate test of ball striking to ensure that approaches land on the correct tier and provide more opportunities for birdies, the ultimate second shot golf course.
The first major of the year is upon us in a matter of days, so much to cover off below but in short, we’re are looking for a player who can control his ball flight and shot shape, with a great short game and bring their flat stick to the table. Let’s dive into the stats and trends as we try and unlock the first Major champion of 2022.
Video Overview
For those of you who want to get a good read on the course this week, take a look at the video overview below from ProVisulizer.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Date: April 7 – April 10, 2022
Par: 72 / Yardage 7,475
Fairways/Rough: Ryegrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Purse: $11,500,000
Defending champ: Hideki Matsuyama
Twitter: @TheMasters
Scorecard
Layout
Fun Facts
• Most wins: Jack Nicklaus (6)
• Youngest winner: Tiger Woods (21 years, 104 days)
• Youngest qualifier: Tianlang Guan, 14 (2013)
• Oldest winner: Nicklaus (46 years, 82 days)
• Widest winning margin: Woods (12 strokes)
• Lowest winning score: -18 (Woods, Spieth)
• Highest score on one hole: 13 (Seve Ballesteros: 16th hole in 1988, Sergio Garcia: 15th hole in 2018)
• Best comeback: Jack Burke Jr. over Ken Venturi, trailed by eight strokes after Round 3
• Amateur winners: None, three runner-ups
• Most times runner-up: 4 (Tom Weiskopf, Nicklaus, Ben Hogan)
Key Skill Sets Required
Driving Distance – Yes, some short hitters have won this event in the past. However, in my view, distance is of critical importance here at Augusta National.
SG T2G – Without a doubt, T2G performance is the most critical factor this week for all the players. The relentless nature of Augustine national puts pressure on ancient every shot from the tee all the way to the final putt. When building your portfolio pay attention to players who have been dominating from tee to green over the past few months.
SG Approach Play – Augusta National is known for being a second-shot golf course, the greatest Iron player of all time Tiger Woods has 5 victories here to demonstrate that fact. Iron play from 150 yards out or further, is of key importance here at The Masters with the majority of shots coming from this range whether that be attacking the long par 4’s or par 5’s. The successful player come Sunday evening will have dominated with long irons in hand.
SG Around The Green - Small undulating greens which are super fast mean that the ball will be repelled from all these pin positions constantly throughout the week. This in turn will mean lots of shots in and around the green complexes. Getting up and down for par and protecting the scorecard is of key importance. The player who is comfortable around the green can be more aggressive when the opportunity presents themselves, knowing they are confident in their short game if their execution is off slightly.
Par 4 Scoring – A lot of talk about dominating the par fives this week which of course is important however it’s the par4 scoring that will separate the players from the field this week. Look for players who have been excelling with their par 4 scoring averages coming into the event over the past few months. This has often been a key indicator of success here at Augusta National.
Player Profiles - The Contenders
Player Jon Rahm
Best Finish 4th 2018
Lowest Score 65 - 2018
Round Average 70.3
Strengths Driving T2G, Long iron game
Weakness Putting
Star Rating 4
Player Justin Thomas
Best Finish 4th 2020
Lowest Score 66 - 2020
Round Average 71.5
Strengths Approach play, the short game around the greens, high ball flight
Weakness Putting, Driving accuracy
Star Rating 4
Player Cam Smith
Best Finish 2nd -2020
Lowest Score 66 - 2018
Round Average 71.5
Strengths Iron play, Bunker Play, Short gaame around the green, putting
Weakness Driving accuracy
Star Rating 3
Player Scottie Scheffler
Best Finish 18 - 2021
Lowest Score 68 - 2020
Round Average 71.1
Strengths Iron play, Driving, Short game, high ball flight
Weakness None right now
Star Rating 4
Player Jordan Speith
Best Finish 1st - 2015
Lowest Score 64 - 2015
Round Average 70.4
Strengths Short game, putting, Short Iron game
Weakness Driving
Star Rating 3
Player Dustin Johnson
Best Finish 1st - 2020
Lowest Score 65 - 2020
Round Average 71.2
Strengths Driving, Short Iron Play
Weakness Short game around the greens
Star Rating 4
Player Rory McIlroy
Best Finish 4th - 2015
Lowest Score 65- 2011
Round Average 71.5
Strengths Driving, Long iron game, High ball flight
Weakness Putting
Star Rating 3
Player Colin Morikawa
Best Finish 18th - 2020
Lowest Score 69-2021
Round Average 71.9
Strengths Driving Accuracy, Iron play.
Weakness Putting, Distance of the tee
Star Rating 3
Player Brooks Koepka
Best Finish 2nd - 2018
Lowest Score 66 - 2019
Round Average 71.4
Strengths Mental game, Driving , Putting
Weakness Short Game
Star Rating 5
Player Viktor Hovland
Best Finish 21st - 2021
Lowest Score 70-2021
Round Average 71.6
Strengths Driving, Long Iron Play, Short Iron Game
Weakness Chipping, Short game around the green
Star Rating 5
Player Xander Schauffele
Best Finish 2nd- 2018
Lowest Score 65 - 2019
Round Average 70.9
Strengths Driving, Short Iron Game, Temprement
Weakness Short game around the greens
Star Rating 4
Player Patrick Cantley
Best Finish 9th -2018
Lowest Score 66 - 2020
Round Average 72.3
Strengths Driving,Long iron game
Weakness Short game, bunker game
Star Rating 3
Player Hideki Matsuyama
Best Finish 1st - 2021
Lowest Score 65 - 2021
Round Average 71.5
Strengths All round iron game, short games
Weakness Driving accuracy, Putting
Star Rating 3
Player Bryson Dechambeau
Best Finish 21st - 2016
Lowest Score 66 - 2019
Round Average 72.4
Strengths Driving distance, Short iron game, putting
Weakness Long Iron game, the short game around the greens
Star Rating 3
Player Adam Scott
Best Finish 1st -2013
Lowest Score 66 - 2012
Round Average 72.3
Strengths Driving, long iron game
Weakness Putting
Star Rating 3
Player Daniel Berger
Best Finish 10th - 2016
Lowest Score 69 - 2017
Round Average 72.6
Strengths Driving accuracy, Long iron play
Weakness real poor record here at Augusta -Low ball flight not ideal
Star Rating 2
Player Abraham Ancer
Best Finish 13th -2020
Lowest Score 67 - 2020
Round Average 71.1
Strengths Driving Accuracy,
Weakness Low ball flight, driving distance
Star Rating 2
Player Matt Fitzpatrick
Best Finish 7th - 2016
Lowest Score 67
Round Average 72.3
Strengths In solid form, Driving, Short game and putting
Weakness distance off the tee, wedge play.
Star Rating 3
Player Tony Finau
Best Finish 5th - 2019
Lowest Score 64
Round Average 70.6
Strengths distance, long iron game
Weakness short game, putting & current form
Star Rating 2
5 Players to be against
Daniel Berger - Poor Augusta record, only 1 round from 16 in the 60’s
Shane Lowry - Poor Augusta record, never broke the top 20.
Jordan Speith - Out of form, should be 25/1 + despite his record here.
Hideki Matsuyama - Injury concerns, poor record of defending champs.
Paul Casey - Injury concerns, lack of recent game time.
Best Outsiders to consider
1. Si Woo Kim 100/1 BetMGM - 110/1 🇺🇸 8 places Bet365 🇬🇧
4 from 5 cuts made and improved with each visit, best-placed 12th last year.
He is a more consistent and better golfer now than at any time in his career.
Arrives in solid form after a good showing at the Texas Open.
Ranks in the Top 20 for SG around the green and scrambling over the past 24 rounds.
Also ranked in the top 20 for proximity to the hole, showing his iron game is in a good place heading into the first major of the year.
2. Adam Scott 50/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 - 50/1 8 places 🇬🇧
Former Champion, who arrives in solid if not spectacular form.
2missed cuts in 20 visits
7th proximity to the hole over the past 24 rounds on tour show his iron is hotting up at the right time of year.
9TH in birdies made over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Sits in the top 20 for Bogey avoidance and sand save both crucial at Augusta National.
3. Talor Gooch 125/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸- 125/1 Bet365 🇬🇧
A winner of the RSM late 2021.
7th at the Arnold Palmer last month, gaining strokes in all key departments.
Top 20 SG approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour.
A player I believe can step up and grab a place payout in the Majors this year.
4. Joaquin Niemann 50/1 🇺🇸 BetMGM 55/1 Bet365 🇬🇧
A winner already this year at the Genesis.
Putts best on the super fast greens that he faces this week.
Top 20 for GIR gained & Birdies made over the past 36 rounds, demonstrating his iron game is on song.
Top 10 in Par 5 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Can he take the next step in his career this week, a big ask but one he is capable off?
Best Outright Picks
1. Brooks Koepka 20/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 20/1 9 places Hills 🇬🇧
• It’s major season, it’s Brooksey Time. 10 top 10 Major finishes in his last 13. Impressive!!
• The most consistent player in the majors over the past 3 years
• Has been building his levels of performance all year.
• 2 top 10 finishes in his last 3 Masters events
• Gained strokes in key stat areas – Off the tee, T2G, approach & Putting.
2. Viktor Hovland 18/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 - 25/1 Bet365 8 places 🇬🇧
• In the top 3 most consistent golfers over the past 3 months - 5 top 10’s in his last 8 events.
• Iron play is dialled in right now ranking in the Top 5 for proximity to the hole and Ball Striking over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• Top 15 in GIR gained over the past 24 rounds.
• A huge positive for Viktor is he has gained strokes with the flat stick in 4 of his last 5 events.
• Slight negative – still no top 10’s in a Major Championship.
3. Justin Thomas 14/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 14/1 Hills 9places 🇬🇧
· Best placed 4th in 2019, in slightly soft conditions. Heavy rain due prior to this event.
· 5 top 10 Finishes in his last 7 starts
· Ranks 1st in my model for the week.
· 1st in scrambling & Bogey avoidance over the past 36 rounds
· 1st in proximity to the hole from 125-175 yards
· 5TH T2G performance over the past 36 rounds.
· Top 20 GIR gained, SG off the tee over the past 36 rounds.
4. Will Zalatoris 33/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸- 35/1 Bet365 🇬🇧
• 2nd of debut at The Masters shows is not fazed by the test ahead.
• 3 top 10 finishes in just 5 Major Starts.
• 2nd in T2G performance over the past 24 rounds on tour, shows his game is where it needs to be.
• 2nd in Ball Striking over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• 5th in GIR gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• 7th in Bogey avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour.
• All the stats suggest he should have a strong showing at The Masters this week
5. Tony Finau 66/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸- 66/1 Bet365 🇬🇧 8 places
Tony doesn’t arrive in the best of form, however, he did gain strokes with his approach play at the Texas Open last week where his game looked in better shape than in previous weeks.
His record at Augusta is solid with a best-placed 5th in 2021, this is certainly a course where past history has significant value
His price is now a fair one, Tony has often been too short in the betting to warrant a bet in the major championships, not the case this week.
3 points Each Way Brooks
2 points Each Way Hovland
2 point win only - JT
1 point each way Big Tony & Adam Scott
0.5 point Each Way on each outsider - 3 points.
19 points total
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