Sanderson Farms Betting Breakdown
5 Minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Plays | Best Outright Picks
Sanderson Farms Betting Breakdown.
After the whitewash that took place at the Presidents’ Cup last week, we move on to a full-field PGA Tour event in the heart of Jackson, Mississippi. This event provided our first winner of the season in Sam Burns, so let’s hope for a repeat.
The Country Club of Jackson is hosting the Sanderson Farm Championship. The course first opened in 1914 and has had several renovations since then. John Fought, who redesigned the course in 2008, is responsible for the present layout. He was influenced by Donald Ross, so we'll have a course that isn't the most aesthetically challenging, but requires accuracy from close range, particularly around the greens. Approach play has been a key factor at all Ross courses and this week will be no different with the new design taking his style into consideration. This event has been held on the PGA Tour since 2013, however, it has previously hosted other events dating back to the 1990s.
The course will be a Par 72 with a total length of 7,461 yards. Expect to see plenty of birdies, attacking golf is a must here, with a winning score expected of 20 under par or better. Last year’s winner Sam Burns shot 22 under par, 3 of the last six winners have had to reach 20 under par to get the job done. This is something to bare in mind when building your portfolio, steady and solid golf isn’t the recipe for success here. Driving distance was the key to a high finish last year and will be of key importance again this year along with putting on Bermuda greens, so keep that in mind while selecting your choices. Let’s break down those key skill sets required in more detail before revealing those all-important outright betting picks.
Event & Course Details
Course & Event Infomation ;
• Course: The Country Club of Jackson
• Location: Jackson, Mississippi
• Date: September 29th - 2nd October.
• Par: 72 / Yardage 7,461
• Purse: $7.9 Million
• Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass/Zeon zoysia
• Greens: Champion Bermudagrass
• Champion: Sam Burns
Scorecard
A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.
Course Layout
Video overview of every hole.
🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑
Driving Distance - We have seen long hitters and short hitters win at this event in the past however the course doesn’t punish those slightly wayward off the tee, and therefore I favour players with strong driving distance stats behind them.
Birdies or Better % - Traditionally not the strongest of fields going to post here and then what is a low-scoring event I want players who have a proven track record of making plenty of birdies who relish these low-scoring shootouts. Previous champions like Champ, Munoz and Burns all are renowned for their birdie-making ability and aggressive style of golf.
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards - Six holes fall in this range and therefore it pays dividends to consider players who can take advantage of the short to medium par 4’s.
GIR - Given the importance of putting this week it makes sense to consider players who are hitting plenty of greens in regulation and therefore giving themselves plenty of outside birdie looks and the chance to roll in plenty of putts
Putting - When looking at the data it is very clear that putting at The Sanderson’s Farm events is of significant importance. This week I will be looking for players that show a tendency to put well on the Bermudagrass greens, and when making my final picks I will pay close attention to putting performance. In addition to Bermudagrass green performance, it’s also noted that the green speed here is always on the fast side.
💣Big Bomb Outsiders to consider 💣
1.Joseph Bramlett 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM
Best placed 18th here on debut, he arrives in good form with a top 15 finish at the Fortinet Championship.
Super long off the tee, which is a key factor in determining success at this event.
He gains most strokes vs his own average on an easy course like he faces this week.
A low-scoring test which favours length off the tee is the type of test I want Bramlett onside for and that’s what we have this week.
2. Kramer Hickok 150/1 + 15000 BetMGM
A top 25 to kick start the season 2 weeks back.
These low-scoring easy tests are where he has performed best historically.
A volatile putter, whose best stats come on the Bermudagrass green he will encounter this week.
Ranked 2nd for proximity to the hole from 75-100 yards over the last 24 rounds, wedge play will be crucial this week.
A player who can outrun his odds and could be a useful DFS player for those who participate in that format.
3. Chesson Hadley 125/1 +12500 BetMGM
Best place 2nd in 2017.
Barring last week, he has been in superb form and I don’t want to desert him just yet on a course that should suit his style of play.
Ranks in the top 20 for Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds.
Ranks in the top 20 for SG Putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranks in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds.
🎯 Top 20 🎯
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🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲
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❌Players to Avoid - Best Lays❌
We survived week 1 of the season - Justin Lower gave us a scare reach 5/2 in the betting on the final day. However, as we know it’s all about the back nine come Sunday, and by then he was feeling the pressure and fell away. £360 Profit was made and we reinvest into week 2 of the season.
No video this week as I’m travelling and enjoying some time away. I will post a screen shot of my lays but for those that are interested we have;
Sam Burns
JT Poston
Benny An
Sepp Straka
Wyndham Clark
Peter Malnati
Scott Stallings
Trey Mullinax
Brendon Steele
Nick Taylor
👊 Best Outright Picks 👊
1.Harris English 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM
The forgotten man, this chap is a serious player who is recovering from an injury-hit 2022 season.
Started the 2023 season with a solid top 10 at The Fortinet Championship, shooting his best round on day 4.
He’s the class act in this field and only 18 months ago would have been in the top 5 of the betting.
Putts superbly on the Bermudagrass surfaces he faces this week.
2. Russell Henley 25/1 + 2500 BetMGM
2 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts on tour shows his game isn’t far away.
Ranked 6th for T2G performance over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 5th for SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 4th for Proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards showing his wedge play is dialled in right now.
His weakness without a doubt is his putting, the good news is he is a significantly better putter on Bermudagrass which he faces this week.
3. Adam Svensson 66/1 + 6600 BetMGM
Heads into the 2022/23 season with his best year on tour behind him.
He is an aggressive golfer whose best chance of winning comes in these lows scoring events.
Ranked 13th in proximity to the hole in the last 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 12th for Birdies made over the past 24 rounds on tour, a key requirement this week.
Ranked in the top 20 par 4 scoring on holes of 400-450 yards over the past 24 rounds.
4. Seamus Power 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM
His best season in the tour last year, I feel he just run out of steam towards the playoffs last year. Rested and with a Ryder Cup place up for grabs, he will be looking to start the season hot like last year and go a few places better and claim victory.
A superb T2G player, the bedrock of his game.
He putts his best on Bermudagrass putting surfaces he faces this week.
Stakes
1 point Each Way - English | Henley | Power | Svensson
0.5 Points Each Way - All Outsiders
Total - 11 Points
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