RSM Classic | Betting Preview

5 Minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Plays | Best Outright Picks

Nov 15, 2022

Thank you

This is the last newsletter of 2022. Thank you for your support. It’s been a solid if not spectacular year for those who have tuned in. The highlight being 3 outright winners in a row at 50/1 JT Poston, 28/1 Xander and 33/1 Cam Smith. We will be back with a new improved format in 2023.

Weekly Recap

✅ Alex Smalley - 4th - 80/1 Full Place @ 16/1 - 1/2 point only.
✅ Alex Smalley - Top 20 - 11/4
✅ Jason Day - Top 20 - 6/5

RSM Classic - Betting Breakdown

The final full-field event of the 2022 calendar year is the RSM Classic, an event many players look forward to.

This week’s venue is home to many players on the PGA Tour. On St Simon's Island, the Plantation Course is just next door to the host venue, the Seaside Course. The 18-hole action is split between the two courses on Thursday and Friday, with the Seaside Course hosting the last 36 holes.

The Seaside Course is a hidden gem with firm, quick greens and the oldest TifEagle greens on tour. It's like a Scottish links course with ocean vistas near the Atlantic. The course flows through marshlands and lakes, with water or marshes in play on nearly every hole. A stop on the PGA Tour that all the players look forward to especially those that get to stay in their own bed such as Harris English, Harman, Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, J.T. Poston too name just a few.

The Plantation course is more of a parkland course near the sea, and it was recently refurbished by event host Davis Love III. The fairways are tree-lined, and the course has a traditional parkland feel to it, with golfers referencing Harbour Town Golf Links as a reference point. However, because tidal rivers and lakes are present on nearly every hole, mistakes are costly. Plantation's fairways are wide, and this Par 72 course is 7,060 yards long, mega short by PGA Tour standards.

With distance virtually having no advantage, players will club down more. The leaders will be determined by their ability to strike the ball and manage its trajectory and shot shapes, as well as their ability to hit fairways and greens and make more putts outside of 15 feet. If the wind isn't too strong, this could turn into a putting contest. This will be another low-scoring PGA Tour event, and it will be a dramatic turnaround from last week's Houston Open.

Who will lift that trophy come Sunday evening? Stay tuned to find out the angles Gingerbets will be taking.

Let’s break down those key skill sets and reveal those all-important outright picks.

⛳️ Event & Course Details ⛳️

Course: Sea Island Resort (Seaside Course) & Plantation Course
Location: St. Simons Island, GA
Date: Nov. 17-20, 2022
Par: 70 / Yardage 7,005. - Par 72/ 7066
Purse: $8.1 Million / Winner $1.4 Million
Fairways/Rough: Platinum Paspalum / Bermudagrass
Greens: Bermudagrass (TifEagle)
Past Winner: Talor Gooch

🔢 Scorecard 🔢

A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

🎥 Course Layout 🎥

3 of the 4 rounds will take place at the Seaside course.

1 round at Plantation.

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

1.    SG T2G – Anyone who has followed me for some time will know that on low scoring tracks I favour recent T2G performance. I just don’t believe that it is something that can click across all facets of your game without showing some prior sparks. This is a course that sees the same type of player contending year in year out. These are players that are accurate off the tee and consistent with their iron play. It often falls down to the best putter on the week certainly in recent times.
2.    Driving Accuracy – The course this week is more tactical off the tee, it is not possible to overpower the golf course and therefore playing to the right parts of the fairways will be key to success. I am therefore favouring players that show patience off the tee, and don’t just rely on power.
3.    GIR gained- When we looked at the recent winners and the stats it is apparent that GIR gained is a key metric. The majority of the winners in the last six years have been in the top 10 for GIR gained on that given week I expect similar this week.
4.    Proximity to hole from 100-150 yards - We can expect another low scoring a fair this week on the PGA tour, and therefore it’s going to be imperative that players hit their short iron shots close to the pin giving themselves plenty of birdie looks inside 15 feet.
5.    Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards - The Sea Island seaside course see’s nine holes falling in this distance, and therefore a category I want to pay particular attention to. 54 of the 72 holes are played at the Sea Island course. With 27 Holes being Par 4 from 400-450 yards.
SG Putting on Bermudagrass - When we look at the final leaderboards over the last few years it is apparent players that putt best rise to the top come Sunday. This is a course where only three or four shots can separate 20 players on the leaderboard at the end of the event. It’s the player that has the best putting stats that will often sneak clear by a shot or two. We don’t have to look for out and out putting specialist as some of the early iron players have always been successful at the RSM classic.

💣Big Bomb Outsiders to consider 💣

Brendon Todd 60/1 + 6000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 50/1 🇬🇧 plenty.

4th here in 2019
Ranked in the top 20 for Par 4 scoring on holes of 400-450 yards in length, we have 27 of those on the sea island course this week.
Ranked in the top 20 for Proximity to the hole from 75-125 yards over the past 50 rounds.
Thrives in windy conditions, which can certainly happen here on the coastal course which players play 54 holes on.
Gains strokes putting on the Bermudagrass we face this week.

2.Chris Kirk 70/1 + 700 BetMGM 🇺🇸 70/1 🇬🇧 Fred

A winner here and 2 other top 10 finishes from 12 starts.
His form has dipped towards the back end of 2022, however, that is reflected in his odds.
There have been plenty of big priced winners here in the past.
Ranks in the top 20 over the past 50 rounds for PAR 4 Scoring, Scrambling and Proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards which are all key skill sets required this week.

3. David Thompson 100/1 + 10000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 100/1 Unibet 🇬🇧

23RD here on his first ever PGA Tour start.
Knows the course well, having played here for Georgia in the SEC Championship.
A top 10 at the Fortinet Championship recently and 12th at the Shriners Open.
This is an event that has thrown up huge priced winners in the past.

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Andrew Putnam 11/4 Bet365
Brian Harman 6/4 Bet365
Chris Kirk 16/5 Bet365

🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲

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💰Best Outright Picks 💰

1. Brian Harman 20/ 1 + 2000 🇺🇸 25/1 🇬🇧 Paddy

2 top 10 finishes at the track previously.
3 Top 10’s in his last 9 starts worldwide.
His iron play has remained solid, he has gained strokes with approach play in each of his last 6 events.
Gained strokes T2G vs the field, each of the last 6 events.
One of the best putters in this field and putts really well on the bermudagrass he faces this week.

Matthew Nesmith 50/1 + 5000 🇺🇸 BetMGM 50/1 BETFRED 🇬🇧

3 Top 20 finishes in a row heading into this week, shows his game is firing.
2 Top 20 finishes from 3 starts at this event previously.
Ranked 6th SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds.
Ranked 2nd GIR Gained over the past 50 rounds.
Ranked 4TH Proximity to the hole from 125-150yards , a key distance this week.
Lots to like from a player in real consistent form.

Justin Rose 40/1 + 4000BetMGM 🇺🇸 60/1 UK 🇬🇧 BET365

A player who arrives in good form with a Top 10 last week.
12th at this event last year on only his second start.
Gained strokes across every key skill set here last year showing his liking for the layout.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Par 4 scoring on holes 400-450 yards over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Putts well on the Bermudagrass greens he faces this week.

4. JJ Spaun 40/1 + 4000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 66/1 🇬🇧 Unibet

A player who will relish the short technical layout on offer this week.
2nd here in 2017.
Ranked in the top 10 for GIR Gained over past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked in the top 10 for SG Par 4 scoring on holes 400-450 yards in length.
Ranked in the top 10 proximity to the hole from 125-150 yards, a key distance this week.
Putt his best on Bermudagrass greens he faces this week.

Stakes