RSM Classic
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Event Overview
This weeks venue is home to many players on the PGA Tour. On St Simon's Island, the Plantation Course is just next door to the host venue, the Seaside Course. The 18-hole action is split between the two courses on Thursday and Friday, with the Seaside Course hosting the last 36 holes.
The Seaside Course is a hidden gem with firm, quick greens and the oldest TifEagle greens on the tour. It's like a Scottish links course with ocean vistas near the Atlantic. The course flows through marshlands and lakes, with water or marshes in play on nearly every hole. A stop on the PGA Tour that all the players look forward to especially those that get to stay in their own bed such as Harris English, Harman, Kuchar , Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, J.T. Poston to name just a few.
Plantation, this is more of a parkland course near the sea, and it was recently refurbished by event host Davis Love III. The fairways are tree-lined, and the course has a traditional parkland feel to it, with golfers referencing Harbour Town Golf Links as a reference point. However, because tidal rivers and lakes are present on nearly every hole, mistakes are costly. Plantation's fairways are wide, and this Par 72 course is 7,060 yards long , mega short by PGA Tour standards.
With distance virtually having no advantage, players will club down more. The leaders will be determined by their ability to strike the ball and manage its trajectory and shot shapes, as well as their ability to hit fairways and greens and make more putts outside of 15 feet. If the wind isn't too strong, this could turn into a putting contest. This will be another low-scoring PGA Tour event, and it will be a dramatic turnaround from last week's Houston Open.
Event & Course Details
Course: Sea Island Resort (Seaside Course) & Plantation Course
Location: St. Simons Island, GA
Date: Nov. 18-21, 2021
Par: 70 / Yardage 7,005
Purse: $6.7 Million / Winner $1.2 Million
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass,Platinum paspalum / Bermudagrass
Greens: Bermudagrass (TifEagle)
6 Key Skill Sets Required
Driving Accuracy – The course this week is more tactical off the tee, it is not possible to overpower the golf course and therefore playing to the right parts of the fairways will be key to success. I am therefore favouring players that show patience off the tee, and don’t just rely on power.
SG T2G – Anyone who has followed me for some time will know that on low scoring tracks I favour recent T2G performance. I just don’t believe that it is something that can click across all facets of your game without showing some prior sparks. This is a course that sees the same type of player contending year in year out. These are players that are accurate off the tee and consistent with their iron play. It often falls down to the best putter on the week certainly in recent times.
GIR gained- When we looked at the recent winners and the stats it is apparent that GIR gained is a key metric. The majority of the winners in the last six years have been in the top 10 for GIR gained on that given week I expect similar this week.
Proximity to hole from 100-150 yards - We can expect another low scoring a fair this week on the PGA tour, and therefore it’s going to be imperative that players hit their short iron shots close to the pin giving themselves plenty of birdie looks inside 15 feet.
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 Yards - The Sea Island course see’s nine holes falling in this distance, and therefore a category I want to pay particular attention to. 54 of the 72 holes are played at the Sea Island course. With 27 Holes being Par 4 from 400-450 yards.
SG Putting on Bermudagrass - When we look at the final leaderboards over the last few years it is apparent players that putt best rise to the top come Sunday. This is a course where only three or four shots can separate 20 players on the leaderboard at the end of the event. It’s the player that has the best putting stats that will often sneak clear by a shot or two. We don’t have to look for out and out putting specialist as some of the early iron players have always been successful at the RSM classic.
Best Outsiders to Consider
All Each Way bets for those looking for a big priced payout, also useful additions to those playing fantasy games over in the USA.
1. Jonny Vegas +7500 Fanduel
A solid 3 rounds last week, slightly dissatisfied with his round 4 performance but I’m willing to forgive him
1st in GIR gained on tour over past 24 rounds
2nd Par 4 scoring on holes 400-450 yards over the past 24 rounds
2.Mito Pereria + 6600 BetMGM
1st GIR gained over the past 36 rounds
7th SG T2G over past 36 rounds.
7th Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards - 9 holes fall in this area this week
Willing to give him one more chance after last weeks disappointing showing.
3. Brendon Todd +6600 Bet365
4th her in 2019
6th in Proximity the the hole from 100- 125 yards over the past 24 rounds on tour
11 Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards over the past 24 rounds on tour
Top 20 in Ball Striking over past 24 rounds
Best Outright Picks
1. Russell Henley +3100 Fanduel
A solid 7th place finish last week at Houston.
Absolutely loves the Bermuda putting surfaces
2nd proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards over the past 36 rounds
Top 10 in Par 4 scoring from 350-450 yards over the past 36 rounds
2. Corey Conners +2800 Bet365
10th here last year
3rd Proximity to the hole over the past 36 rounds
2nd in Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards - 9 holes on the sea island course fall in this range
5th GIR gained over the past 36 rounds
Despite his awful putting it’s worth noting that Bermuda is the best surface for him
3. Brandon Grace +10000 Unibet
Putts best on the Bermuda grass putting surface
7th proximity to the hole from 125-150 yards a key distance his week
5 top 10’s in his last 9 events worldwide
A proven winner at a tasty price
4. Brendon Steel +12500 Fanduel
8th Proximity to the hole from 125-150 yards over the past 36 rounds
12th proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards shows his overall wedge and short iron game is in good shape
8th Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards over the last 36 rounds - 9 holes in this range on the host course
Can go low and that’s what will be required this week
Top 20 Picks & Day 1 3 Ball Best Picks
Top 20
Henrik Norlander +410 Fanduel
2 top 5’s previously at the event
Top 10 in Proximity to the hole from100-125 yards over the past 36 rounds
Top 20 par 4 scoring from 350-450 yards on tour over the pt 24 rounds
A streaky putter who statistically putts best on the Bermuda grass
Brandon Grace +450 BetMGM
Putts best on the Bermuda grass putting surface
7th proximity to the hole from 125-150 yards a key distance his week
5 top 10’s in his last 9 events worldwide
A proven winner at a tasty price
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