RBC - 🇨🇦 Canadian Open 🇨🇦
Canadian Open Betting Breakdown, Outright Picks,Key Stats, Course Breakdown + Tasty Priced Outsiders.
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Back in the Winners 🏆 enclosure.. a long wait between drinks.
Onto this week….
RBC - 🇨🇦 Canadian Open 🇨🇦
The Canadian Open takes centre stage this week, a competitive field tee it up and St George Golf & Country Club. Stanley Thompson's expertly crafted course has truly stood the test of time. Among the best courses in the world, the players will look forward to this week. This is the precursor to the US Open taking place at the famous Brookline next week.
The Royal York Golf Club, as St George's Golf and Country Club was formerly known, was founded in the Roaring Twenties with the help of Canadian Pacific Railway money. Stanley Thompson, one of North America's most talented architects was commissioned to fashion a championship course in downtown Toronto, close to the shores of Lake Ontario and in 1929 the course opened for play. The course has had a few redesigns over the year and most recently in preparation for the Canadian Open here in 2022 & 2024.
St George's is a true test of skill, with tight twisting fairways and undulating terrain. The club has proudly hosted the Canadian Open five times, most recently in 2010, as well as the LPGA Classic five times.
Today's layout measures slightly more than 7,000 yards from the back tees, with a par of 70
With a more strategic bias than many of Thompson's other well-known works, St. George's places a high value on accuracy from the tee, and its tight greens are difficult to hit when out of position but often enticing enough to tempt golfers to gamble causing greater problems. The round starts with a beautifully bunkered uphill par four, followed by the difficult 2nd, one of several fantastic driving holes that require a precise drive down the dangerous side to set up a decent angle into the target. The fourth and fifth holes have significant undulation and reward those who take an aggressive line down the right with a relatively flat lie, while the cross-gully sixth and semi-dell eighth holes are both enjoyable par threes but thereto attack for the worlds best.
Back nine highlights include the subtle rolls and ridges of the 10th fairway and the notorious par four 12th with massive bunkers down the left side of a right sloping fairway and a green sitting on a ledge that is more difficult to hit the further right you stray. Also, a notable hole is the 14th where you must drive long and straight to reach the downslope or face crossing the diagonal creek from a hanging lie. The finish is rightly acclaimed as one of Canada’s best. A tough par three at 16 is followed by the impossibly difficult 17th, originally conceived as a par five and still featuring its tiny three-shot green, and the strong, slow rising 18th played through mature trees and striking greenside bunkers.
St George's is a solid challenge and one that should make for great preparation ahead of the US Open next week.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION;
• Course: St George’s Golf & Country Club
• Location: Toronto, Ontario.
• Date: 9-12 June 2022
• Par: 70 / Yardage 7046
• Purse: 8.7million/ winner - 1.4millon
• Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass
• Greens: Bentgrass/ Poa overseed
• Defending Champion: Rory Mcllroy
Similar courses for correlation
1. TPC Craig Ranch 2. Brown Deer Park GC 3. Port Royal Golf Course
4. TPC Summerlin 5. Cog Hill G&CC 6. La Quinta Country Club
7. Glen Abbey GC 8. Warwick Hills G&CC 9. Pebble Beach Golf Links
Scorecard
Course Layout
Video overview of every hole.
🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑
Driving Accuracy - Not the longest of course by any means, players falsely could assume this track can be overpowered. It’s precision that’s is preferred over power this week. Playing to the right side of the fairways and opening access to the tucked pins will be more important than pure distance of the tee.
SG Approach Play – Plenty of tight landing areas to hit this week from the tee, however it’s the second shot approaching the tiny greens which will cuss the players most to think about. Second shot will vary in length of course but there appears to be a high amount from over 150 yards. This is due to forced landing areas from the tee. We want players onside who excel with iron in hand.
Par 3 Scoring- With 5 par 3’s in play each day this week it makes sense to look at those who excel in this area. Linked to iron play, those players who can attacked the pins on par3 and make plenty of birdies will be at a distinct advantage over their competitors.
Par 4 Scoring 450yards + - Only the nine par 4’s this week, and 6 of them will measure up at over 450 yards. These demanding par 4’s will play an important factor this week. I want player onside who can dominate the tougher more challenging par 4’s.
SG Sand Saves - Heavy bunkering protects the majority of greens here at St George’s Golf & CC. Lots of elevation changes make clubbing hard for all players and this results in a high amount of approach shots finding the well placed bunkers. Getting up and down from here will be important this week. The winner will have got up and down circa 80% of the time.
📈 Stats that matter 📈
Driving Stats
Par 3 Scoring
Sand Saves
🤞Best Outsider to consider 🤞
1. Tyler Duncan 125/1 + 12500 BetMGM 150/1 🇬🇧 Hills
2 top 20’s in his last 5 events.
He has gained strokes with approach play in each of his last 8 events, SG approach is the biggest factor in success in the PGA Tour.
Ranked in top 20 for SG Off the Tee & Good Drives Gained over the past 36 rounds
Ranked 29th for SG T2G over the past 36 rounds.
A player who can outperform his odds this week on a course that should suit his game.
2. JT Poston 100/1 + 10000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 + 125/1 🇬🇧 Hills
2 top 10 finishes in his last 5 starts worldwide, 3rd at the RBC Heritage and 8th at the Wells Fargo.
Gained stroke with approach play & putting in 5 of his last 6 events.
Ranked 6th for SG scrambling over the past 36 rounds on tour.
This shorter course will be more in his wheel house, if he can putt well I can see him outrunning the odds on offer.
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🎯 Top 20 🎯
Tony Finau 13/10 Bet365
CT Pan 11/4 Bet365
JT Poston 17/4 Bet365
🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲
Harold Varner 45/1
JT Poston. 90/1
Tyler Duncan 90/1
👊 Best Outright Picks 👊
1. Justin Thomas 9/1 + 900 BetMGM 10/1 🇬🇧 Hills
6 top 10’s in his last 10 events despite him saying he doesn’t have his A game.
Ranked number 1 in my model for the week.
1st T2G over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 1st in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards over the past 36 rounds.
Ranked 1st in Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards.
Ranked 6th for GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 4th for Scrambling over the past 36 rounds on tour.
2. Corey Conners 20/1 + 2000 BetMGM 22/1 🇬🇧 Hills
The home support this week may just give him that extra boost. An all-star ball striker.
Ranked 2nd SG Off the tee over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 6th in GIR gained over the past 36 rounds.
Ranked 6TH SG T2G over the past 36 rounds.
Can he hole some more putts this week, if so he’s a live runner in my eyes.
3. Tony Finau 25/1 + 2500 BetMGM 25/1 🇬🇧 Hills
2 top 5 finishes in his last 4 starts, signs that big T is on his way back to form.
Gained strokes across the board in all key skill stat area in his last 2 events.
Gaining over 1 stroke per round with approach play over his last 5 events, shows the iron game is heating up.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG T2G, SG Approach & GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Can Tony take advantage of this weak field heading into Major number 3 of the year?
4. Harold Varner 33/1 + 3300 BetMGM 40/1 Hills 🇬🇧
2 top 10 finishes in his last 6 starts worldwide
Gained strokes with approach play in 11of his last 12 events, a key factor on tour.
Ranked 6th SG around the green & Ranked 9th for SG around the green, shows where his short game is right now.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG T2G & Birdies made over the past 36 rounds on tour.
5. CT Pan 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM - 80/1 🇬🇧 Hills
His Iron play is the most consistent of his career right now, he has gained stroke with his iron play in each of his last 8 events.
Ranked 9th SG approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 7th GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tour, approach play is key every week on tour and CT is dialed in at present.
Ranked 7th in par 4 scoring on holes 450-500 yards.
Ranked in the top 20 for Good drives gained over the past 36 rounds.
If CT can combine his iron play and putting this week he is sure to outrun his odds.
3 points win only JT
1 point each way all main selections - 8 points
0.5 point Each Way on each outsider - 2 points
Total 13 points
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