PGA - Charles Schwab Preview
Outright selections, skill sets required, best outsiders + much more
PGA Championship Recap
Well done to you if you found Phil last week your a better person than me. I wouldn’t have landed on him if you gave me 50 picks. It’s wasn’t all doom and gloom for Gingerbets followers as we had a full place payout at 90/1 on Shane Lowry which covered the week for those that choose to follow the main selections outsider or both. That’s 3 place 💰 payouts over the past 3 weeks with two second-place finishes and a 4th.
Charles Schwab Challenge Preview
The Course Overview
Course: Colonial Country Club
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Date: May 27-30
Par: 70 / Yardage 7,209
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Defending Champion: Daniel Berger
Colonial Country Club is an old-fashioned style course that requires an emphasis on tee-ball and ball-striking accuracy and strategy. Sharp iron players and ball strikers succeed – shot-makers and shot-shapers. Golfers with the best short games have typically done well, and the list of winners at Colonial is filled with top ball strikers look at last year’s leaderboard with Berger, Morikawa, Xander, Bryson, Kokrak all at the top of the leaderboard.
There are a number of tree-lined holes and doglegs, starting with the ‘Horrible Horseshoe’ at holes 3, 4 and 5.Driving distance is mostly irrelevant at Colonial, as the driver is neutralised which I have highlighted in the Skill Set Required section below. The ability to shape shots and manage your golf game with solid ball striking sets you up for success. Strength around the green is a big plus as highlighted below bogey avoidance is also a stats to monitor.
You can’t overpower the course that’s the bottom line - see what I did there!!
Skill Sets Required
A decent field goes to post this week with some big names looking to click into action with the major season well and truly underway. This weeks course certain has some standout areas in which the players are going to perform, take a looks at the image below which emphasises the importance of iron play and around the green game.
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
SG: Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 yards
Proximity to hole 125-175 yards
As you will see from the picture above driving distance and driving accuracy are of little importance this week. If looking to make your own selections I strongly recommend you look for players in good form with a previous top 20 at Colonial, and those who are stripping their irons.
4 big priced outsiders to consider
In this section, I’m going to provide insights on three players over 50/1 I feel have a genuine chance of winning this week, great to include in your DraftKings teams, and if looking for a speculative outsider as an outright pick then look no further.
1 🥇 Harold Varner - 90/1 8 places
9th in my overall model over the last 24 rounds
3rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards
13th SG around the green last 24 rounds
16th Proximity to the hole in approach play
2.🥈- Russell Knox 100/1 6 places
8th here in 2019 - the last 10 winners had a top 15 here previously
8th Proximity to the hole in approach play last 24 rounds
2nd proximity to the hole from 150-175yards
17th SG Approach last 24 rounds
Gained strokes with the approach in the last 7 events
3 🥉 Joel Dahman 100/1 8 places
2 tops 20’s from 3 starts at the event
4 cuts made in a row
gaining over 1 stroke per round on approach play over the last 3 events
very consistant ball-striker - chances most likely depend on putting performance
30th in total putting on Bentgrass last 36 rounds
Bonus selection - Troy Merrit 150/1 8 places
2 top 10’s last 4 starts
SG around the green vs field in the last 5 events
SG approach vs the field in the last 4 events
17th Here on debut
💷💶💵 Outright Picks 💵💶💷
I have 3 outright selections this week and no need to flip over to YouTube it’s all here with a quick summary of what lies behind each selection.
Charley Hoffman 45/1 EW 8 places
3rd SG approach last 36 rounds
3rd Proximity from 125-150 yards
10th Par 4 scoring on holes 400-450 yards
15th SG scrambling over the last 36 rounds
6 tops 20’s in the last 7 starts
Colin Morikawa 14/1 EW 8 places
The best approach player in the field this week elite level in this area
lost in a playoff last year missing a short par putt
come in off a lovely final round at Kiawah Island
1st in Proximity from 125-150yards
7th in proximity from 150-200 yards
1st in opportunities gained
BIG TONY 22/1 8 places EW
2nd here in 2019
5 tops 10’s from 11 starts in 2021
11th in SG around the green last 36 rounds
3rd in my overall model for the week
top 20 over last 36 round in Approach, Proximity, scrambling, P4 scoring
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