PGA Championship-Kiawah Island
Outright Picks, Skill Sets Required , Best Outsiders + more ginger snippets
PGA Championship Preview - Kiawah Island
The Course Overview
Course: The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island
Location: Kiawah Island, SC
Date: May 20-23
Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,876
Fairways/Rough: Paspalum
Greens: Paspalum
Defending champion: Collin Morikawa (TPC Harding Park)
The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island Golf Resort, just outside Charleston, South Carolina is known to be one of the most difficult in the country. Designed by course architect Peter Dye in 1989 and 1990 for the 1991 Ryder Cup, it’s windy. Really windy. North/south winds with big gusts can wreak havoc and quickly bring the world’s best to the knees. Back in 2012, the last time Kiawah hosted the PGA Championship, then-23-year-old Rory McIlroy made the most of the European style links course and conditions, obliterating his peers by a record eight strokes. It was peak Rory. Shaggy brown hair, cheeky grin, quiet confidence. How the Northern Irishman would dearly love a repeat of that performance this week. The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island resort is also always changing, constantly evolving. This year, the fairway lines have gotten a little tighter, and the rough been let loose. This will make it tougher for big ballers like McIlroy, DeChambeau and others to get the absolute most out of their drivers. The Ocean Course boasts the most seaside holes in the Northern Hemisphere with ten hugging the Atlantic Ocean. It’s going to blow and blow hard at times. It feels very much like an open championship.
Skill Sets Required
This week could play very much like an Open Championship, a coastal track with plenty of wind in the offering, fast firm fairways expected - it’s going to break many players this week.
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
All-round scrambling
SG: Total Driving inclusive of distance & accuracy
Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards
Bogey Avoidance
Sand Save Percentage
Strong SG in Windy Conditions
We have a few more data points to look at this week, but it’s a major week so let me off, please. I believe that total driving will be mega important this week those that are long and wild will struggle and those that have powder puff drives will stand no chance on this brute of a course. So I want players who consistently outperform the field off the tee box. When you take a look at the pictures above you can see the run-off areas and upturned greens. This means your short game is going to be key and always is the case at Major events. I have paid particular attention to sand save, bogy avoidance and SG around the green data and if making your own pick I encourage you to do the same.
3 big priced outsiders to consider
In this section, I’m going to provide insights on three players over 50/1 I feel have a genuine chance of winning this week, great to include in your DraftKings teams, and if looking for a speculative outsider as an outright pick then look no further.
1 🥇 Matt Kuchar - 125/1 8 places + top 20
12th GIR on wind-exposed tracks
13th Bogey Avoidance over last 75 rounds on difficult tracks
3rd Sand save over past 75 rounds on difficult tracks
8th in Bounce Back Ability
Plays Pete Dye tracks very well
whats not to like
2.🥈- Chris Kirk 200/1 8 places + Top 20
Plays Pete Dye tracks well in general
12th in my short game model over past 75 rounds
14th in Bogey avoidance over the past 75 rounds
7th in sand save over the past 75 rounds
4 tops 10s in 2021 so far
14th in scrambling over the past 75 rounds
3 🥉 Brendon Todd 250/1 10 places
2nd SG Putting on difficult tracks over the psst 75 rounds
3rd SG around the green over the past 75 rounds
1st SG total ( Off the tee , approach , around the green , putting ) on windy tracks over past 50 rounds 1st
12th in the open championship and St Andrews in 2015 - he’s a much better payer now
💷💶💵 Outright Picks 💵💶💷
I have 4 outright selections this week. . To get a glimpse of all 4 you will have to tune into the YouTube video link below. It’s only 8 minutes long and will provide solid reasoning behind each of this week’s picks sorry for it being slightly longer than usual.Tune in 📺⬇️🙏👇🎦
If you want the selections only, skip to the last minute where I recap all 4 of this weeks picks. Don’t forget to hit that 👍 button on the YouTube video , let’s see if we can get 10 likes this week.
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