PGA Championship - Betting Preview

Ultimate Short Form Betting Guide.

May 16, 2022

The 104th PGA Championship will be played May 19-22 at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

The Champions Course at Southern Hills Country Club has hosted 7 Major Championships, including the U.S. Open 3 times (1958, 1977, 2001) and 4 PGA Championships (1970, 1982, 1994, 2007). Indeed it’s the only course to host the PGA Championship 4 times, a lead it will extend with this year’s renewal. Interestingly it also hosted the 2021 Senior PGA Championship won by Alex Cejka, with that tournament also being played here on the Gil Hanse-renovated golf course. Could we gain clues from those events as to how the course will be set up and play this week? I think so. The course is vastly different from the course that Tiger won on in 2007, so during my research, I have paid particular attention to the comments and insights coming out from last year senior’s event.

Southern Hills is the crowning achievement of architect Perry Maxwell. Almost every hole bends left or right. It’s used to require extreme precision of the tee, but from what we can read, that has changed since the 2019 redesign. The putting surfaces feature classic "Maxwell Rolls," The majority are protected by simple but effective bunkers. Architect Gil Hanse and his crew rebuilt much of the course during the summer of 2018. Hanse's signature isn't to leave a signature; instead, he restores a course to its original design while also grasping what today's greatest players can achieve with today's technology. His detail changes reflect this, making the course more visually appealing while simultaneously increasing its difficulty. Bunker styles, green borders, and green surrounds/chipping portions were all completely restored. Pure Distinction Bentgrass was used to rebuild all of the greens complexes, and now we have the beast that is Southern Hills Golf & Country Club. I think we are in for a treat this week. One where the world’s best players and the strongest field of the 2022 calendar year are put through the wringer. I, for one can’t wait!

A top-level short game, with the ability to have majestic irons and show great discipline throughout the week, is the player profile I want onside. A mix of proven majors champions, and those with the pedigree to step up and claim their first. The bucket of potential first time major winners is plentiful. I have broken down the key contenders and all the reasons why, lets's get to it……

Event & Course Details

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION

Course: Southern Hills Country Club
Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma
Par: 70 / Yardage 7550
Purse: 12 Million / Winner 2.2million
Fairways: Bermudagrass
Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Defending Champion: Phil Mickleson

Scorecard

For a more detailed look into each hole you can check out the PGA Championships’ main website ;

Hole By Hole Overview

Course Layout

Note the shorter par 5 will play as a par 4 this week.

Video overview of every hole.

Hole by Hole Guide

If you are looking to dive deeper into each and every hole on the course this week then take a look at the links below;

Hole by Hole Break Down

🔑 5 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG T2G – To lift a Major Championship trophy aloft requires elite T2G performance over 4 days. The foundation to stress-free golf comes from having a solid T2G game, and I want to look for players who have shown that over the past few months. This track is a long and demanding Par70 with only the 2 Par 5’s on offer which gives little rest bite to players who are fully tuned in with every club in the bag.

Driving Distance - Since the redesign of this course in 2019. It has become apparent that the fairways have been widened. When reading the comments from players who participated in the Seniors PGA Championship this now favours players who can bomb it off the tee. Players described the course as unrecognisable off the tee from the early 2000’s. Here is a quote from one player;

“ The fairways are about double the width than they were back in 2001. The fairways definitely I remember number 10, it was one of the hardest fairways to hit on the golf course, and now it’s probably the easiest fairway to hit. But the course is made for the bombers, the long hitters are going to love it.”

GIR gained – Major Championship golf is a grind mentally as well as demanding huge amounts of skill. Players who hit a high percentage of GIR are going to be a distinct advantage and even more so this week. The redesign to this course mentions how the greens repel the ball away from the pins and players who get greedy with their approach shots will see balls run off the green regularly. The course is considered difficultly around the greens, so we want to have players onside who are patient with their approach shots and can show the discipline to refrain from attacking pins. Hitting a GIR by default will give plenty of outside birdie looks, and that the aim in Major Championship golf. The players who fill the top 5 this week will be extremely high up if not at the top of the GIR charts if history at this track is anything to go by.

SG Around the green – We are looking at a long course with small green and since the redesign in 2018/19 those green have become ever harder to hit. The edges of the green are sloped away from the hole causing even well-struck iron shots to find their way to the first cut and rough situated around these small targets. This will put even more emphasis on players’ shorts games this week around the green. To take down any Major Championship you will always need to perform well around the greens, this week will put even more pressure on that part of the game.

Bogey Avoidance – The feeling ahead of Thursday is this is going to be one tough nut to crack and the players won’t be making 6 or 7 birdies per round. When it comes to Majors par is always a good score in general and avoiding mistakes is always key. All the great major champions have an unrivalled ability to avoid mistakes, as the saying goes “majors don’t start until the back nine on Sunday”. Players need to minimise mistakes throughout the whole week. I have paid particular attention to players who have solid bogey avoidance stats on tough scoring tracks.

A top-level short game, with the ability to have majestic irons each day and shows great discipline is the player profile I want onside. A mix of proven majors champions and those with the pedigree to step up and claim their first. The bucket of potential first time major winners is plentiful.

📈 Stats that matter 📈

Iron Play = over 7400 yards course length

Putting = Bentgrass

🙅‍♂️ Players To Be Against 🙅‍♂️

These are players who the market respects, not long shots who have no chance of success according to the market. I will be looking to take these players on in various markets throughout the week.

1.Viktor Hovland 25/1

Still, to make a top 10 in majors championships, that will change one day 100% but for now, I’m happy to be against him.
The course greens are very undulating and repels the ball away from the hole putting an emphasis on the short game, not his strength by any means.

2. Bryson DeChambeau 50/1

2 missed cuts from 5 PGA tour championships in his career.
Out of form over the past 12 months and has yet to recover from various injuries.
His short game is out of sorts and that will be important this week.
Outside the top 100 in approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour.

3. Colin Morikawa 18/1

The most risky of the ones to be against but I can’t get away from the stats on courses over 7400 yards in length.
Ranked 200+ on proximity to the holes from 100-125 yards, 114th from 125-150 yards.
Ranked 130th in scrambling which will be key this week if the reports on the course are accurate.
Ranked 94th SG around the green over the past 36 rounds on a tough track
Lots of negatives however, he’s is a world class player and 2-time major champ and has little Tiger about him so I write this with fear!!

🤞Best Outsider to consider 🤞

1. Marc Leishman 125/1 + 12500 BetMGM 🇺🇸

One of the best short games in the world game and that’s backed up by his stats
Ranked 6TH in Bogey Avoidance over the past 36 rounds on tough long tracks
Ranked 5th in Scrambling over the past 36 rounds on long and tough scoring courses
2 top 20’s in his last 6 events show his game in there in parts if not fully firing
Wide open fairways with an emphasis on GIR, Short game and mentality should be right up his street.

2. Gary Woodland 100/1 +10000 BetMGM 🇺🇸

A Major winner who is returning to form after an injury sickened 18 months following his US Open success.
2 top 10 finishes at the PGA Championship in his last 4 visits, long demanding course brin, with an emphasis on T2G excellence bring out the best in Gary.
3 top 10’s in his last 8 events show signs the game is bubbling under and in solid if not magnificent shape.
Super long off the tee will be an advantage over many this week.
6TH in Bogey Avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tours
If the flat stick can gain strokes, I expect Gary to outrun his huge and generous odds.

3. Matt Fitzpatrick 40/1 + 4000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 66/1 Bet365

In the most consistent form of his life on the PGA Tour
5 top 10’s in his last 8 events on tour, with his latest a runner up.
Gained strokes T2G in each of his last 8 events, this will give him huge confidence coming into this demanding test.
He has gained a considerable distance of the tee over the last 6 months and is no longer the short hitter he once was, I expect this to open up opportunities to challenge in these major events.
He is ranked 2nd in Bogey Avoidance on tough tracks over the past 36 rounds on tour.
He arrives in great health and with confidence on his side, I’m hopeful of a big week for Fitzy.

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🎯 First Round Leader Darts 🎯

First Round Leader darts 🎯

1. Jordan Spieth TBC

Arrives here in great form with a recent win and top performance at the Byron Nelson finished 2nd.
Plays tough tracks well, he won’t be fazed by the major he will be excited.
He has form for opening Majors well unlike many at the top of the leaderboard, high on the confidence I expect him to get out the blocks well.

2. Dustin Johnson TBC

Arrives with an upturn in form and a solid showing at the birdie fest Byron Nelson.
1ST Round stats on tough tracks are appealing. 1ST Scrambling, 1st Bogey Avoidance 3rd T2G performance 5th SG of the tee all over the last 36 rounds.
Has a proven record of starting majors well at a tasty price he’s taken as my second selection.

LIVE VIDEO AT 8PM UK TIME ON YOUTUBE

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

1. Hideki Matsuyama 40/1 +4000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 33/1 🇬🇧 Hills

2 Wins in his last 9 starts
He has gained strokes T2G in each of his last 9 events, which will is a huge advantage heading into a Major Championship
Deceptively long of the tee and the wide fairways should suit his game.
Ranked 2nd on SG Approach play on correlating courses over the past 36 rounds
Ranked 11th in Bogey Avoidance over the past 36 rounds, important when taking on a tough test like this week
A Major winner who has performed under pressure time and time again. This appears to be a ball strikers course and that will be right up his street.

2. Dustin Johnson 18/1 + 1800 🇺🇸 BetMGM 18/1 🇬🇧 PP

6 top 10 finishes in 12 PGA Championships and finishing runner up on 2 occasions, show his liking for the event.
Ranks 9th in SG T2G on tough tracks over the past 36 rounds, major tests really suit his game
Ranked 3rd SG Off The Tee over the past 36 rounds, if he can drive is well this week on wide-open fairways it should free up the rest of his game.
Ranked 1st in Par 4 scoring on tough tracks over the past 36 rounds on tour.
In the top 20 for Bogey Avoidance on demanding tracks.
Lots to like about DJ’s chances this week at a more than fair price.

3. Jon Rham 12/1 + 1200 🇺🇸 BetMGM 14/1 Bet365 🇬🇧

2 Top 10’s in this event form 5 starts.
A win last time out at the Mexican Open.
Ranked 1ST SG off the tee over the past 36 rounds on tough courses.
Ranked 1st in GIR Gained over the past 36 rounds on tough scoring tracks.
Ranked 5th T2G performance over the past 36 round son hard tracks.
With confidence from his recent win, one of the most consistent ball strikers in the game, I expect big things from Jon this week.

4. Patrick Cantley 22/1 + 2200 🇺🇸 BetMGM 22/1 🇬🇧 Hills

7 Top 10’s in his last 10 starts worldwide, show his game is dialled in and very consistent right now.
First-time major winners often pop up at PGA Championship and he is one on the shortlist for sure.
Ranked 2nd in my overall model for the week.
Ranked 3rd SG T2G over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 2nd in Scrambling over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 10th SG around the green over the past 3 rounds on tour.
Ranked 13th GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
All the stats say he is due to make a huge push this week, he has won everything in the game bar a major championship and now is time for Patty Ice to stand up.

2 points each way all main selections
3 points win only Rahm
1 point Each Way on each outsider - 3 points
Total 15 points

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