Houston Open - Betting Breakdown

5 Minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Plays | Best Outright Picks

Nov 09, 2022

Houston Open - Betting Breakdown

The newly sponsored Cadence Bank Houston Open is on our screens this week, headlining the field will be Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, and last week’s winner Russell Henley.

Memorial Park Golf Course, which opened in 1936 and is located near downtown Houston, is a municipal course. Last year, Tom Doak remodeled the course with Brooks Koepka's aid. This week's event will be a Par 70 course with a total length of over 7400 yards. You Can be sure with the influence of Brooks on this redesign it will be a demanding and challenging ball-striking test.

The revised course includes three Par 5s and five Par 3s, with several of the latter stretching out to over 200 yards. There are numerous Par 4s that are between 450 and 500 yards long. One of the course's distinguishing features is the lack of bunkers that really come into action; instead, the course has minimal amounts of water throughout, as well as challenging slopes and run-off areas, particularly on and around the greens. Each and every club in the bag will be put to work this week.

This week, golfers will need to be precise with their approaches and have a solid around-the-green game to get up and down on these tough Bermuda greens. Long hitters should be able to take advantage of the several Par 5s and shorter Par 4s that will be in play this week one on the back 9 is drivable for most, so I'll be looking for individuals who can blast the ball far off the tee. The ability to hit approaches well from the 175-225 yard range will also be important this week, with numerous Par 3s going over 200 yards.

Overall this week I’m looking for players who can play big-boy golf courses well. When looking at the leaderboard last year all of the players at the top stand out in the ball-striking statistics this isn’t a course for finesse and precision but more out-and-out T2G play.

Who will lift that trophy come Sunday evening? Stay tuned to find out the angles Gingerbets will be taking.

Let’s break down those key skill sets and reveal those all-important outright picks.

Event & Course Details

Course & Event Infomation ;

Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Location: Houston, TX
Date: Nov. 10-13, 2022
Par: 70 / 7,412 yards
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bermudagrass
Purse: $8.4 Million / Winner $1.4 Million
Past Winner - Jason Kokrak

Scorecard

A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

Video Flyover

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

Driving Distance – A long and demanding course of the tee box. Plenty of Par 4 ‘s over 450 yards and the addition of 3 long Par 5’s. All of this means I’m favouring big boy players of the tee box this week. No place for the faint hearted. The last few weeks on tour have favoured precision, not the case this week.

SG Off The Tee – A big boy golf course faces the players this week, this is somewhat different from all other fall season events so far. Driving on the course is of significant importance and therefore I have paid particular attention to those players who thrive off the tee box, if doing your own research I suggest this is an area to concentrate on.

SG T2G – On a super demanding layout makes sense to look at recent strokes gained T2G performance. Looking at the leaderboard from last year shows this is a real ball striking test and the world’s most elite players from tee to green rise to the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening. I expect a similar story in 2022.

Proximity to hole from 175 Yards + - This is a tough and demanding track the players face there is a significant amount of shots From 175 yards or greater rather than look at green in regulation data this week I want to look at proximity to the whole from 175 to 225 yards there will be a higher volume of shots from this distance than the average week on tour. As we have touched upon, this is a real ball-striking test.

Par 3 Scoring efficiency - There are 5 par 3 holes this week some of them extremely demanding at over 200 yards it, therefore, makes sense to pay particular attention to par 3 scoring. I will also be paying close attention to players who have performed well on par-3 holes over 175 yards in length.

💣Big Bomb Outsiders to consider 💣

Sabastian Munoz 70/1 + 7000

A player who has the ability to go super low at any given time, he excites me in the FRL market this week. It’s advised we wait for the draw before confirming that bet
A previous winner of this event in 2019.
Ranked in the top 15 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
Ranked in the top 15 SG T2G over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
Ranked in the top 5 for SG Par 4 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour, this will be crucial this week.

2. Alex Smalley 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM

A long driver of the ball, whose game should suit the test that lies ahead this week.
A previous top-20 finish at this event shows his liking for the course setup.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Off The Tee over the past 50 rounds
Ranked in the top 10 for proximity to the hole from 200 + yards, long iron play is a key factor on this layout.
Gains strokes vs the field Putting on the Bermudagrass we face this week

3. Lee Hodges 70/1 + 7000 BetMGM

A player who has the arrives I solid form with a top 10 2 weeks back at the CJ cup.
Gained strokes with his approach play over the field average in each of his last 8 events, showing his iron game is sweet right now.
Gained strokes Off The Tee vs the field in each of his last 6 events.
Ranks in the top 10 SG Approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour
Ranked in the top 10 Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards, we know that long irons will be a factor this week

Thanks for reading Gingerbets Golf Betting Insights! Join hundreds of fans globally who subscribe to The Gingerbets 5 MINUTES weekly golf betting newsletter.

Jason Day - 6/5 Bet365
Davis Riley - 7/4 Bet365
Alex Smalley - 11/4 Bet365

🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲

Sebastian Munoz 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM
Lee Hodges 66/1 + 6600 BetMGM

Follow on Twitter- Follow Now

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

1. Denny McCarthy 40/1 + 4000 BetMGM

Initially, it appears this course is not one Denny would thrive in, however, he has a 9th and 11th placed finish.
His iron play has remained solid, he has gained strokes with approach play in each of his last 4 events.
Gained strokes T2G vs the field, each of the last 6 events.
Gained strokes Off The Tee in each of his last 3 events.
He is one of the best putters in this field and putts really well on the bermudagrass he faces this week.
A player I believe could be overlooked this week given the bias towards longer players on this layout, his price is fair in a field of this quality.

Maverick McNealy 25/1 + 2500 BetMGM

His 3rd visit to the track, and each time he has finished in the top 20.
4 top 20 finishes in a row on less than ideal course show his game is picking up right now.
Ranks in the top 10 for SG Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds on courses less than 7200 yards, like we face this week.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Short Game over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Lots to like from a player in real consistent form.

Davis Riley 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM

A player who arrives in good form with a tied 21st last week.
2 top 10 finishes at this event in the past.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG T2G Performance over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Off The Tee Scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Off The Tee, T2G, and Approach play are 3 key metrics this week and Davis ticks the box.

Jason Day 33/1 + 3300 BetMGM

It’s another week in our portfolio for Jason. A solid finish last week, after a poor 1st round his chances were nearly gone, however, he fought back really well over the next 3 days.
There have been some solid signs recently 8th at Shriners & 11th at the CJ Cup and tied 21st last week.
He still has one of the best short games around ranked in the top 5 for both SG Around the Green & Short Game, this will play a part on a track like this.
Gained Strokes with his approach play in each of his last 7 events, the last time he did that was in 2020.
Gained strokes T2G in each of his last 7 events.
A good week with the flat stick and who knows, I’m prepared to find out in a field like this at what I think are fair odds.

Stakes