Fortinet Championship - Betting Breakdown Newsletter

5 Minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Plays | Best Outright Picks

Sep 14, 2022

Welcome

A warm welcome to new members, and welcome back to those who have been following for some time. This week sees the first event of the 2022/23 season, and I can’t wait. Those of you who are new each and every week I break down ;

⛳️Course preview
✈️Video Course flyover
🔑Key skill sets required
🤞Best Big Priced Picks
🏌️Best Outright Tips
🎯Top 20 Picks
🎲First Round Leader

and NEW IN 2022/23 I am going to be putting my money where my mouth is and laying players each and every week with a view to making a 10% profit each week from my starting bankroll. If this sounds like your thing subscribe to YOUTUBE CLICK HERE

Subscribe to Gingerbets Golf Betting Insights HIT ME

WILL I LOSE £3000 - FIND OUT WEDNESDAY ON YOUTUBE.

Fortinet Championship Betting Breakdown.

The Fortinet Championship from Silverado Resort and Spa kickstarts the 2022/23 PGA Tour golf season. Last year this event kickstarted the rise of Max Homa, now famous for both his impeccable golf game and top-class Twitter account.

The field this week is somewhat depleted compared to the 2021 renewal, this is a combination of the new LIV Golf Tour and the recent BMW Championships at Wentworth last week.

The Silverado course has seen vast improvements over the last 10 years, led by Jonny Miller. He has added length and a rerouting of holes since the original Trent Jones Jr design back in the 1960’s.

The North Course is a traditional, tree-lined course that has been arranged to be scoreable at the Fortinet Championship. The Par 72 course is not overly long at just over 7,120 yards, which has plenty of dog-legs and Napa Valley Oaks and Redwoods strategically placed to block approach shots, none of this will phase the players this week. The course’s main defence is the tight and narrow fairways, they are some of the hardest to hit on the PGA Tour circuit ranking in the top five hardest in 4 of the last 5 years. Given the narrow fairways you could be fooled into thinking this course suits a player with precision off the tee, winner like Tway, Cameron Champ and Brandon Steele gives a twist to that narrative, all are super long off the tee and not the most accurate. The reason, quite simply the rough here on this resort course isn’t penal enough to stop the world best with a wedge in hand, something to bear in mind if making your own picks this week.

Expect a winning score in the high teens would be my prediction 15-20 under par, the field strength isn’t the best so I can’t see the player taking this course to pieces this week.

Let’s break down the key skill set required in order to lift that trophy come Sunday evening.

Event & Course Details

Course & Event Infomation ;

•     Course : Silverado Resort & Spa
•     Location: North Carolina
•     Date: Sept 15th -18th 2022
•     Par: 72 / Yardage 7,120
•     Purse: $7.5 Million / Winner
•     Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass/poa annua
•     Greens: Bentgrass / poa annua
•     Defending Champion: Max Homa 2021

Scorecard

A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

Course Layout

Video overview of every hole.

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG T2G – Although this is a resort course, it still demands solid T2G performance. I want to look for players who generally gain strokes over their competitors from T2G.

SG Off The Tee – This is one of the hardest driving courses the players face all year, especially in terms of fairway width, where it ranks among the 5 hardest o tour. Ordinarily, you would think it is more about driving accuracy however that is not the case. The rough here isn’t too tough, meaning players can still attack pins from the rough as long as they miss on the correct side. Look for players who dominate the SG gained stats Off The Tee.

Proximity 75-125 Yards- Over 30% of shots will come from this range, significantly more than the average PGA Tour event. The course is relatively short by modern-day standards and despite the narrow fairways the rough isn’t a huge punishment, therefore players can bomb it off the tee and try their luck from close to the greens with a wedge in hand.

SG Around The Green – Not often do we see SG Around The Green as a key skill set on a resort course, but that’s the case this week. Silverado Resort and Spa has ranked in the top 10 hardest courses to get up and down from in 4 of the last 5 years.

SG Putting – A mix of Bentgrass and Poa Annua to contend with this week for the players, which won’t be to everyone’s liking. Look for players who can excel with the Poa mix and those that consistently. Except for Brendon Steel’s win in 2018 and Grill in 2016 putting has been a significant factor in determining the outcome of this event.

💣Big Bomb Outsiders to consider 💣

1. Trey Mullinax 66/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 66/1 Unibet 🇬🇧

A volatile player who has shown signs of a big performance is around the corner.
A win and 2 other top 20 finishes in his last 5 starts worldwide.
Dominant Off The Tee, gaining strokes vs his competitors in 7 of his last 9 events
Gained strokes T2G in 4 of his last 5 events, showing the majority of clubs in the bag are firing right now.
On a course that doesn’t punish inaccurate driving , he could go well at an attractive price

2. Nick Hardy 80/1 + 8000 🇺🇸 BetMGM 125/1 SportsNation/10bet 🇬🇧

A serious young talent who hits its miles off the tee, much like many of the previous winners here.
A top 10 back at The Travelers and a Top 20 at the US Open only a few month back, shows his game has been in good order
Finished tied 36th last year, gaining 1 stroke per round on the field T2G, also dialled in with his approach play
Putts his best on the surfaces with Poa Annua in which he faces this week.

3. Wyndham Clarke 55/1 🇺🇸 BetMGM 66/1 Unibet 🇬🇧

Ranks in the top 20 in my model and sits well outside that in the betting which has my attention
Ranked in the top 20 for SG around the green, not something he is recognized for and is underrated considerable in this key area.
Gained Strokes Off The Tee in each of his last 8 events, which sets up promisingly for this week.
Putts his best on the gains with Poa Annua in like he faces this week.
Gained strokes putting in 6 of his last 8 events, putting is the key skill set required this week in my view.

Thanks for reading Gingerbets Golf Betting Insights! Join hundreds of fans globally who subscribe to The Gingerbets 5 MINUTES weekly golf betting newsletter.

Chesson Hadley 4/1 Bet365
Cam Davis 19/10 Bet365
Chris Kirk 3/1 Bet365

🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲

Coming Wednesday after the 3 balls draw. Follow on Twitter- Follow Now

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

1. Cam Davis 33/1 + 3300 🇺🇸 BetMGM 33/1 Unibet 🇬🇧

4 top 20 finishes in his last 5 events.
Best placed 17th here on debut in 2018
Underrated wedge game ranks in the top 20 over the last 50 rounds for proximity to the hole from 75 – 100 yards and ranks 3rd from 100-125 yards. Key distances this week.
Gained strokes putting in 10 of his last 12 events.
Trending in the right direction I expect a huge performance.

2. Sahith Theegala 28/1 🇺🇸 BetMGM 35/1 Unibet 🇬🇧

Best placed 14th here on debut in 2020
A super driver off the ball, who consistently gains strokes Off The Tee, which is an important factor here this week.
Posses an underrated short game, ranking in the top 20% of the field for SG Scrambling & SG Around The Green.
Gained strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 events, and putts statistically best with Poa Annua grain in the mix.

3. Chesson Hadley 125/1 +12500 🇺🇸 BetMGM 125/1 Paddy Power 🇬🇧

4 top 10 finishes in his last 7 events shows his game is peaking right now, the most consistent his game has been for years.
He is an aggressive golfer who makes plenty of birdies.
Ranks in the top 20 for Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds.
Ranks in the top 20 for SG Putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranks in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds.

4. Alex Smalley BetMGM 110/1 🇺🇸 100/1 Hills 🇬🇧

Solid all-round game who plays aggressive golf.
3 top 20 finishes in his last 6 starts worldwide shows his game is solid right now.
Long off the tee which is advantageous here at Silverado Resort & Spa.
A stellar iron game, although this week isn’t all about iron play it’s sure to set him up nicely if he continues to gain nearly a stroke on the field with his approach shot.
His putting is the biggest concern but at 100+ in a weak line up like this I’m willing to take my shot.

Stakes