FedEx-BMW Championship | Betting Guide

5 Minute Betting Breakdown | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Players | Best Outrights

Aug 16, 2022

FedEx-BMW Championship

The 2022 BMW Championship will be played on the South Course at Wilmington Country Club in Wilmington, Delaware. The 2022 event will mark the first time the PGA TOUR has played an event in Delaware, and it will be the third time since 2018 that the BMW Championship has been held on the East Coast.

Wilmington Country Club first opened its doors in 1901, with 18 holes spread across 135 acres. The club relocated in the 1950s, and the South Course, which opened in 1959, was designed by famous golf course architect Robert Trent Jones Sr. The South Course, which measures over 7,500 yards from the championship tees, has been named by Golf Digest as one of the greatest in the United States.

The South Course at Wilmington Country Club, 7,534 yards, par 71. As we touched upon Robert Trent Jones Sr. designed it. After a tornado devastated the region in August 2020, Andrew Green redesigned the course in 2021. A 250-year-old white oak was among the 300 trees that the tornado downed in just five minutes, allowing Green to relocating the 14th green back by 60 yards. The front and back nines of the course will be combined in the tournament routing (e.g. Nos. 1, 2, 3, and 4 are actually the 10th, 13th, 14th, and 15th, holes for the members). The club had hired Andrew Green to redesign its North Course, but after the tornado, the club asked Green to help with the South Course as it got ready for the PGA TOUR.

Looking at the overheads this week there will be a premium on driving the ball long and straight, the course will have thick rough and will certainly penalise the players unlike many courses on the PGA Tour rota. Seconds shots here won’t prove that difficult for players who are hitting from the short grass, the greens are huge, and the key part will be hitting the right segment of the green to open up birdie looks. I expect tough scoring conditions this week with a winning score in the low teens circa 12-14 under par.

Let’s break down those all-important key skill sets required to lift the trophy and have a shot at the 18 million dollar FedEx cup trophy next week at East Lake.

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Event & Course Details

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION;

· Course: Wilmington Country Club South Course mainly.
· Location: Delaware
· Date: Aug 18-21, 2022
· Par: 71 / Yardage 7,534
· Purse: $15 Million / Winner $2.7M
· Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass
· Greens: Bentgrass
· Defending Champ : Patrick Cantlay

Scorecard

A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

Course Layout.

Course Flyover

Please note that some holes are from the North course this week, however the majority come form the south course which you can find below. LONG AND STRAIGHT IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY!!

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG T2G – A new course for the players this week with little to no data to reflect upon. Mean the starting point for my research will be those players who are excelling right now with their T2G game. Given this is the crunch stage of the season and big prizes on offer I want players onside who are cruising with their T2G game. I don’t want players who are up and down, fighting their overall game, especially heading into a tough test like this.

SG Off The Tee – Looking at the video by the NBC team, the course has some seriously dangerous rough, from all accounts the rough will be grown to 3inch deep come to the tournament start date. This will mean hitting fairways is an absolute premium and gaining strokes off the tee over your competitors will set up opportunities to make birdies and climb that leaderboard. I expect the winner will be in the TOP 10 of SG Off The Tee come Sunday.

Proximity to Hole – Hitting greens in regulation will be a walk in the park for the 70 hottest players in world golf, so instead of looking at GIR and SG Approach I want to pay more attention to proximity to the hole stats, and identify those players who, hit it closer than their peers consistently.

SG Around The Green – This is a long track which will stretch many players. This will result in lots of short shots in and around the green complexes. I want players onside who have shown their long-term short game is up to the test ahead.

SG Putting –Large and Undulating Bentgrass putting surfaces face the players this week, it will be the first time these players will have seen the surfaces here in Delaware, so when doing your research id encourage you to look for players with good 36/50 round stats in their favour on this unique surface.

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💣 Best Outsiders to consider 💣

1. Keith Mitchell 80/1 +8000 BetMGM 90/1 Unibet

Had a consistent 2022 and showed signed his game is still there in the last few weeks at the Wyndham & St Jude.
Ranked in the top 20% Off the Tee last week, 9th in Driving Accuracy & 16th Driving Distance, if he can provide that platform again this week, he has the iron game to contend.
One of the best short games around which will come into play on this demanding track.
One of the best short games on tour Ranked 7th SG Scrambling over the past 24 rounds on tour, a key skill required this week on this demanding layout.
Putts well on the surfaces he faces this week.

2. Cam Davis 66/1 +6600 BetMGM 70/1 Skybet

4 top 20 finishes in his last 4 events.
Gained strokes Off The Tee in each of his last 6 events worldwide, this will be a key stat in my view this week.
Gained strokes with Approach play in 12 of his last 13 events, the comfort levels with iron in hand are as good as they can be. On this demanding layout, this is sure to be advantageous.
Putts his best on the Bentgrass he faces this week, gained strokes with the flat stick in 9 of his last 11 events.
Trending in the right direction I expect a huge performance.

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Cam Davis 13/8 Bet365
Kieth Mitchell 7/4 Bet365
Si Woo Kim 2/1 Bet365

🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲

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👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

Jon Rahm 14/1 + 1400 BetMGM 🇺🇸 14/1 hills 🇬🇧

His price is a fair one given the talent he possesses; he is often far too short in the betting.
Despite the downturn in form, a fundamental part of the success here at Wilmington Country Club is driving and Jon Ranks 1st in SG Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds showing his long game is still the best in the world.
His ranked in the TOP 10 last week for SG Approach, OTT & GIR gained, his price is to big for me this week given the talent he possesses.
His is ranked 8th in GIR Gained over the past 24 rounds.
Despite being a little away from his best, the course this week should suit and given the prize money, the world number 6 should be highly motivated to end the year on a high.

Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1 +2200 usa 🇺🇸 BetMGM 20/1 hills 🇬🇧

A Major Champion who will be relishing the opportunity to take on the world’s best in the form of his life.
Arrives on the back of a TOP 10 last week, where a cold putter cost him a shot at the championship.
A super driver of the ball, one of the most accurate teeing it up this week, and also one of the longest now. Ranked 5TH last week for SG OTT, this stat will be vital this week.
Ranked in the top 10 for GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tour a key factor coming into this week
In the form of his life, on a course that should suit, he is a must bet at the top of the Market for me.

3. Collin Morikawa 25/1 + 2500 🇺🇸 BetMGM 25/1 Unibet 🇬🇧

A quiet 2022 by Collin’s standards, however a win here this week would change that narrative somewhat. He has shown signs of a return to form especially with the driver which was falling him all too often during Major season.
Ranked in the TOP 5 for fairways gained last week, looking at the overheads finding fairways will be of paramount importance this week.
His approach play improved on recent weeks ranking 8th for GIR gained, he also ranked in the TOP 10 for T2G performance on the week.
If he can continue this momentum I expect him to make a good run at this event, on a course that should be beneficial to his skill sets.