Farmers Insurance Open
Betting Preview by Gingerbets
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2022 hasn’t yet gone off with a bang, but we are knocking on the door with another full place payout in Brian Harman at 80/1 meaning a decent profit on the week.
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🏆Event Preview
⛳️Course Preview
🔑Key Skill Sets Required
📊Stats Pack
2️⃣0️⃣ Top 20 Picks
🍀 Best Outsiders to Consider
🏌️💰Best Outright Picks
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Event Overview
The Farmers Insurance Open is held on Torrey Pines' South and North courses.
Three rounds are played on the newly lengthened +7,700 yard South Course, with each competitor also playing 18 holes on the North Course on Thursday or Friday.
The world-famous South Course, which stretches above the Pacific Ocean and is one of the longest on the PGA Tour, is a classic design. Scoring is exceptionally difficult due to penal rough, specialised Kikuyugrass fairways, and green complex designs that resist approach shots, the elite tend to ascend to the top of the scoreboard here at Torrey.
South
Seven of the par-4s at Torrey Pines South are over 450 yards, and all four of the par-5s are over 560 yards. Torrey South also features Poa Annua greens, which are exclusively found on the West Coast and North East of the United States. Both courses also have Kikuyugrass rough, which is only seen on the PGA Tour here, at Riviera, and at Chapultepec each year. Torrey South is a brute of a golf course , where length historically has been a huge advantage, despite some shorter hitter like Sneds having a tremendous record here. Players will aim to go low at the North track and hold on at the South track.
North
The North Course is a par 72 course that continues to favour low scoring and can be crucial in tournaments. The North Course has been through its own redesign and is playing a little longer and tougher over recent years. Despite this players must take advantage of the 18 holes they get round here, anything short of 5 under par and you can expect to lose strokes to the main protagonists. The North Course has played 2-3 strokes easier than the South Course on average. It's critical to shoot low on your one round on the North Course, and we've seen players win or lose tournaments simply on that one round.
Patrick Reed shot an 8-under 64 on the North Course to start in 2021. On the South Course, he went 6-under in his next three rounds. In 2019, Justin Rose started with a 9-under 63 on the North Course and won after shooting a total of 12-under on the South Course over the next three days. In 2018, Jason Day won at 10-under par after shooting an 8-under 64 on the North Course and three rounds in the 70s on the South Course.
You can’t win it on the North Course but you can certainly lose it if you don’t go low.
Putting
The South Course has Poa Annua greens, whereas the North Course has pure Bentgrass greens, which adds to the intricacy of this event, personally I’d pay attention to those that put tho poa Annua well as we have 54 holes on that surface.
The best event of 2022 so far is right upon us, let’s hope we can bag the winner!
Event & Course Details
Yards: 7,258 (North), 7,765 (South)
Par (North & South): 72 (4x 3s / 10x 4s / 4x 5s)
Greens: Bent (North), Poa (South)
Architect (North): William Bell (Tom Weiskopf renovation in 2016)
Architect (South): William Bell (Rees Jones renovation in 2001)
Historical Cut Line: -2
Median 4-round Score: -2 (’21), -4 (’20), -7 (’19), -1 (’18), -4 (’17)
Comp Courses: Muirfield Village, Bethpage Black, Quail Hollow, Club De Golf Chapultepec, Bay Hill, Accordia Golf Narashino
Recent Winners: Patrick Reed (’21), Marc Leishman (’20), Justin Rose (’19), Jason Day (’18, ’15), Jon Rahm (’17)
Key Skill Sets Required
Driving Distance -One of the longest courses the players face on the PGA tour all year round and three of the four rounds take place on the world-famous Torrey Pines south course which is 7770 yards. This is a course that certainly favours driving distance and length in general, the biased isn’t as strong for the North course however the players only have 18 holes to contend with there whereas the other 54 will be on the brutal and demanding Tory Pines South.
SG T2G -Quite simply, to win the Farmers Insurance Open you have to have an outstanding T2G performance on that given week. Previous winners have arrived with good current form and in addition to that a strong tee to Green performance of recent times. I certainly want to use this as the bedrock of my research this week and encourage you to do the same also. Players don’t tend to find their T2G form at an event like this on such a demanding layout.
SG Approach 175+ yards - There is going to be a higher majority of shots from over 175 yards out in approach play this week given the demanding length of the layout in front of the players. When looking at the data it’s apparent that players who have excelled from 175 yards + have had a significant better chance of lifting the trophy come Sunday evening. I don’t see it being any different this week.This is of key importance on both the long par 4’s the players face on the south course and the par 5’s across both tracks.
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 - Like we have touched upon 54 holes take place on the demanding Torrey Pines south this week. This course has 4 par 4’s that fall within 450 to 500 yards in length, This really does separate the men from the boys and the cream tends to rise to the top on these demanding tracks. I’m certainly wanting to dig deeper into this range on par 4 score in this week.
SG Putting 0-15ft - We have two different grasses to contend with this week at Torrey Pines however we are going to focus on the Poa Annua surface on which the players face 54 holes. The green complexes are notorious hard on the Torrey Pines south course and this is one of the hardest putting courses the players face all year from 0 to 15 feet. When doing my research I’m focusing on players have excelled in this area and have a liking for Poa Annua.
Best Outsider to consider
All Each Way bets for those looking for a big priced payout, also useful additions to those playing fantasy games over in the 🇺🇸 or 🇬🇧.
1. Pat Rodgers 160/1 Bet365
2 top 10 finishes from 5 goes at the event.
Sits in the top 20 for my model this week and outside the top 50 in the betting.
Prolific off the tee and has loads of distance a huge advantage here at Torrey Pines.
A huge price but certainly a player who can mix it on these long demanding set ups.
2. Keegan Bradley 80/1 Bet365
2 top 5 finishes from 10 visits.
One of the best drivers on tour which is a huge help on this demanding setup.
Top SG T2G over the past 36 rounds on tour on tough tracks.
Sits in the top 25 of my model , will need to putt better to win but it’s not without hope that he does. He has gained strokes putting at Torrey in the past.
3. Joseph Bramlett 175/1 Bet365
Sits in the Top 10 for Driving Distance over the past 36 rounds on tour, this has been a key ingredient for success at Torrey Pines.
18th here last year, he is a stronger and wiser player 12 months on.
4th in GIR gained on tough tracks over the past 36 rounds.
Putts his best statically on Poa Annua green which he faces for 54 holes this week.
4. Wyndham Clarke 160/1 Bet365
He’s in the Top 10 for Driving Distance over the past 36 rounds on tour. Data tells us this is a significant factor.
He putts his best statically on Poa Annua green which he faces for 54 holes this week.
He has made his last 5 cuts in a row showing consistency in his game right now
Best Outright Picks
1. Will Zalatoris - 33/1 BetMGM
Comes here of a tied 5th last week.
He sits in the Top 10 SG approach, T2G , Par 4 Scoring & GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tough tracks.
He game sets up well for tough, long and demanding tracks which the player face this week.
His best putting stats come on the Poa Annua that he faces this week.
2. Dustin Johnson 20/1 Fanduel
5th in Driving Distance over the past 36 rounds, we know distance is an advantage here.
1st Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards , there are 6 holes on Torrey South which player face on 3 occasions.
Top 10 SG T2G over the past 36 rounds on tough tracks
Putts his best on Poa Annua grass which the players face this week.
3. Brooks Koepka 33/1 BetMGM
Let’s just put stats to one side the 4 time Major champ in bigger than Burns,Finau, Berger, Sunny Im that’s got my attention.
Top 15 over the past 36 rounds on SG approach, this is on tough scoring tracks.
Top 15 GIR gained and Proximity from 150-200yards , again on tough and demanding tracks.
His price is just to big to ignore.
4. Talor Gooch 50/1 Bet 365
3rd here in 2019.
Top 5 finishes at Riviera, which is the same fairways grass and putting surfaces the players face this week
Top class iron player from 150-200 yards.
Statistically putts best on the Poa Annua which the players face for 54 holes this week.
5.Pat Rodgers 160/1 Bet365
2 top 10 finishes from 5 goes at the event.
Sits in the top 20 for my model this week and outside the top 50 in the betting.
Prolific off the tee and has loads of distance a huge advantage here at Torrey Pines
A huge price but certainly a player who can mix it on these long demanding set ups.
1 point each way on all selections - 10 points in total
1/2 point each way on each outsider - 2 points ( Rodgers also main selection )
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