CJ Cup Betting Breakdown

5 Minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Plays | Best Outright Picks

Oct 18, 2022

Recap Zozo Championship

For the 3rd time over the past 18 months not only did we pick the WINNER Keegan Bradley 40/1 , we provided the 1-2 with Andrew Putnam at 70/1.

65 points profit puts us over 60 points up for the year after 2 places last week it’s been a tremendous start.

The 10 lays of the week also provided another 12% profit for the week.

Starting bank £3000 - Current £4590.

I’m taking the week off laying, due to holidays, a lack of course data and a slight lack of prep this weekend.

Finger crossed 🤞 we can keep the run going.

Note of caution betting outright picks is very volatile so for all the new member this week, please note betting successfully require discipline and patience.

CJ CUP Betting Breakdown.

Just want the picks - click here ⬇️

A new course hosting the CJ Cup this week, not lots of data to get stuck into but as ever we will break down the key stats to provide the best chance of success. 78 players will fight it out, over recent years this event has seen the world's best ball strikers flourish with wins for Rory, JT and Brooks all having success in recent years.

Congaree Golf Club is not your typical golf club it is in the lowlands of South Carolina. The Tom Fazio-designed course, which opened in 2018, is located on more than 2,000 acres of former rice plantation land with lakes and untamed woodland. It should prove the stiffest challenge of the fall season so far for players.

The famed Australian sandbelt courses are referenced in the architecture, and with any luck after all the recent birdies feasts the course will play fast and firm as designed. With a lot of sand waste areas and little rough, this course is undoubtedly different from your typical Tour stop-off.

Although fairways are generous in width, straying can result in balls crashing into hazards of all shapes and sizes. One thing to note for those tuning in this week,players are allowed to ground their club on address at any time on any sandy stretches at Congaree because they are all considered natural areas. The greens this week are in the main raised from the fairways and have little to no rough surrounding them, meaning lots of run off area which will test the short games of all players teeing it up. Think links like greens and run off areas and that’s what the players will have in front of them.

Let’s break down those key skill sets and reveal those all-important outright picks.

Event & Course Details

Course & Event Infomation ;

Course: Congaree Golf Club
Location: South Carolina
Date: Oct. 20-23, 2022
Par: 71 / Yardage 7,650
Purse: $10.5 Million
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bermudagrass
Past Winner : Rory Mcllroy 2021

Scorecard

A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG T2G- A proper test of golf faces the players this week, a long a demanding track with a winning score expected in the mid-teens means the T2G game must be firing on all cylinders if you wish to compete. This test of golf requires all the clubs to be working and there is no better indicator than T2G performance both short term and long term.

SG Off The Tee- With a course playing over 7500 yards as a par 71 it will be imperative to gains strokes off the tee box. Doing that will take pressure of the long approach shots. Looking at the top 5 of the Palmetto Championship in 2021 this track showed the importance of gaining strokes of the tee. 4 of the top 5 ranked in the top 10 off the tee for the week, expect more of the same this week.

SG Approach play 175+ -The majority of second shots will take place from this distance this week, significantly more than the average at a PGA Tour event. We want players onside who have good long iron games, this test is not for the faint hearted.

GIR- On a challenging test like this week it makes sense to consider players who are hitting plenty of greens in regulation and therefore giving themselves plenty of outside birdie looks and the chance to roll in plenty of putts.The winner here in 2021 finished 3rd for GIR gained, the runner up 5th for GIR gained. I expect a similar trend this week.

SG Scrambling - Along course with a high percentage of approach shot over 175 yards out means the greens are missed with regulatory here at Congaree Golf Club. Scrambling well protects the scorecard and making pars on the difficult holes here is no bad thing. It’s so important to get up and down 70% of the time thought out the week, without doing so puts victory out of reach.

Putting- Bermudagrass greens facing the players this week and that will be to the liking of many especially the world's elite like Rory, JT, Speith to name a few who have over 15 combined wins on these surfaces alone. When making your final portfolio this week pay particular attention to those who excel on this grain of grass.

💣Big Bomb Outsiders to consider 💣

1.Cam Davis 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 80/1 🇬🇧 Unibet

One of the longest players on tour, who isn’t the most accurate should be well suited to the layout this week.
Ranks 6th for SG approach play from 200+ yards over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 3rd for SG approach play from 175-200 yards, a superb long iron player.
Ranks in the top 10 for driving distance, something I favour over accuracy this week.
Gained strokes with the flat stick in 11 of his last 14 events.
At a huge price Davis has huge upside and someone I’m willing to back, he has done us a favour at 100+ in the past.

Kieth Mitchell 80/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 100/1 🇬🇧 Bet365

Ball striking and shot shaping seem to be the combo to look for this week, a hard test is what brings the best out in Kieth Mitchell.
I’m favouring plays who are elite off the tee this week and Mitchell fits that bill. He has gained strokes off the tee in each of his last 10 events.
Ranked in the top 5 for GIR gained over the past 50 rounds on tour, hitting GIR this week will be a crucial factor.
Putting is often his weakness; he statistically putts best of the Bermudagrass he faces this week.

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Justin Thomas 8/13 - Bet365
Jordan Spieth Evens - Bet365
Cam Davis 19/10 - Bet365

🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲

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❌Players to Avoid - Best Lays❌

No Official Lays this week on video. Here is a snap shot of players I would be keen to take on this week. As noted lack of research and data means I’m sitting this one out.

Max Homa
Tom Kim
Aaron Wise
McNealy
Billy Ho
Tom.Hoge
Luke List
Andrew Putnam
JT Poston
Matt Kuchar

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

1. Justin Thomas 16/1 +1600 BetMGM 🇺🇸 16/1 SpreadEx 🇬🇧

A poor 2022 by JT’s standards, he will be raring to go this week after 4 wins from 5 at the presidents cup a few weeks back.
A wide open course with little rough will negate the weakest part of his game off the tee.
Ranked 2nd for SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour on Lon course over 7400yards
Ranked 1st for T2G performance over the last 24 rounds on long demanding tracks like he faces this week.
Ranked 2nd for Ball Striking over the past 24 rounds on tour on tough tracks over 7400 yards, exactly what he faces this week.
A 6 time winner on the Bermudagrass putting surfaces he faces this week.

2. Sunjea Im 22/1 + 2200 BetMGM 🇺🇸 25/1 Paddy Power

It’s hard to ignore Sungjea this week for me, 6 top 20’s in his last 7 and 4 top 10’s during that period.
A superb T2G player, ranked 1st over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 1st for SG Off the Tee over the past 24 rounds, driving is a important asset this week.
Ranked 2nd for GIR gained over the past 24 rounds, demonstrating the comfort he has in his iron game right now.
Putts his best on the Bermudagrass greens he faces this week.

3. Viktor Hovland 25/1 + 2500 BetMGM 🇺🇸 28/1 🇬🇧 10bet

A top 10 last week means Viktor arrives with a spring in his step, this time of year has proved fruitful for Viktor in the past, he is bubbling under the surface, and I have high hopes of a repeat in 2022.
A course that on paper suits his game perfectly, he is one of the best on tour off the tee.
A top 10 player with iron in hand over the past 36 round on tour.
Has form on other Tom Fazio designs, won in Punto Rico and a top 5 finish at Congressional.
Gained strokes putting in his last 5 events despite it being a perceived weakness in his game.

4. Jordan Speith 28/1 + 2800 BetMGM 🇺🇸 33/1 🇬🇧 Unibet

5 from 5 at the President’s Cup a few weeks back, Jordan will be excited about this weeks test.
This course won’t punish erratic driving like many on tour, and that sets up well for Jordan.
Proven on fast and firms tracks all around the world, he also has proven himself on links like tracks which he faces this week.
Ranked in the top 10 for SG around the green.
Has 5 wins to his name on the Bermuda greens he encounters this week.

Stakes