Charles Schwab Challenge

Charles Schwab - Betting Breakdown. Outright picks, Outsiders to consider + top 20 selections.

May 24, 2022

Charles Schwab.

Colonial CC is in the same category as Torrey Pines, Riviera Country Club, Augusta National, and Muirfield Village, but it's a much tighter affair from tee to green.

At 7,209 yards, this Par 70 designed by Bredemus and Maxwell cannot be underestimated. The tree-lined parkland course features pure Bentgrass greens with average sizes of only 5,000 square feet. Birdies are difficult to come by at Colonial, and the two par-5s are among the most difficult on Tour to birdie or better.

Colonial is short by today's standards, however it has very narrow fairways some of the most narrow on tour, tee shot target areas are extremely small putting a real premium on driving accuracy and strokes gained off the tee. Errant drives are caught by tough Bermudagrass rough, and the majority of the fairways on the property are tree-lined, ensuring plenty of blocked approach shots for those who deviate off the tee box.

As with most classical courses, there is no single right or wrong game shape that dominates the list of champions. On this Texan classic Colonial layout, both short game specialists Na, Kisner, Spieth, and ball-strikers Berger, Rose, Adam Scott have all succeeded. All game types have an equal chance of winning here on this beautiful track. I’m personally favour finesse over power this week.

There are a number of tree-lined holes and doglegs, starting with the ‘Horrible Horseshoe’ at holes 3, 4 and 5.Driving distance is mostly irrelevant at Colonial,not often we say that on the PGA Tour. As the driver is neutralised which I have highlighted in the Skill Set Required section below. The ability to shape shots and manage your golf game with solid ball striking sets you up for success. Strength around the green is a big plus we will touch on more later on. It’s a shame this event comes after a major as it’s a great course which favours no particular type of player but the field strength is somewhat light in terms of class.

You can’t overpower the course that’s the bottom line - see what I did there!!

Event & Course Details

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION;

Course: Colonial Country Club
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Date: May 26-29
Par: 70 / Yardage 7,209
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Defending Champion: Jason Kokrak

Scorecard

A breakdown of this weeks scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

Course Layout

Video overview of every hole.

Hole by Hole Guide

If you are looking to dive deeper into each and every hole on the course this week then take a looks at the video overview.

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG T2G - Very much like like week this test will put huge emphasis on the players T2G game. This course requires players to shape the ball off the tee both ways to hold this doglegged fairways. Then on approach the greens are tiny to aim at, and require precision and shot shaping both ways. The world best ball strikers should rise to the top of this leaderboard come Sunday.

Driving Accuracy - Very seldom do we putt up driving accuracy as a key skill set, however, Colonial is one of those traditional classical tracks that does bring this stat into play. Some of the hardest fairways to hit on the whole of the PGA Tour tell the story. You can see from the graph below Colonial has ranked in the top 5 hardest fairways to hit on tour in 6 of the last 7 years.

GIR gained – All the data points to the importance of hitting GIR, approach play will be key this week. The players who hit the centre of the green consistently and give themselves putt’s out towards the green edges on these tight and tucked pins will hold the edge. The table below shows the importance of hitting high % of GIR.

SG Around the green – We can see from the data short game expertise is a must here at Colonial. Small green to aim at on what is already a tough driving test means you can guarantee plenty of missed greens. The players who scramble best and protect their scorecard are at a distinct advantage. Looks for player with proven short game expertise over the last 36/50 rounds not just over the past few weeks. The graphic below ⬇️ clearly shows the importance of short game here at Colonial.

Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards - 7 holes fall over this distance each day. Players who excel on medium to short par 4’s should be considered. Lots of wedges in hand for players this week on the classical layout and therefore I want players onside who are dominating this stat area.

Bogey Avoidance – we can see from this winning scores previous that Colonial is no push over despite its lack of length. Players must avoided mistakes and paying attention to those who make very few mistakes could prove fruitful.

📈 Stats that matter 📈

Driving Accuracy

GIR Gained

SG Around The Green- Short Game

🤞Best Outsider to consider 🤞

1. Brian Harman 50 /1 🇺🇸 BetMGM 45/1 🇬🇧

3 top 10 from 9 visits with only one missed cut.
A solid driver who is super accurate, ranked 3rd for fairways gained over the last 24 rounds.
Ranked 2nd in Par 4 scoring & 3rd on Par 4’s from 400-450 yards of which there are 7 each day.
Ranked 12th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds.
A perfect course fit for Harman. I expect a solid showing this week.

2. Tom Hoge 50/1 usa 🇺🇸 BetMGM 50/1 🇬🇧

A winner already this year, who performed extremely well at the PGA Championship on a course that wouldn’t have suited.
Ranked 10th SG T2G over the past 24 round on shows his overall game is in good shape.
Hits plenty of fairways and ranks in the top 20% for fairways gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Accomplished in moving the ball both ways with his irons which will be important this week.
Confidence running through his veins right now I expect a strong showing from Hoge.

3. Patrick Reed 80/1+ 8000 BetMGM 🇺🇸 80/1 🇬🇧

Best placed 7th here.
Short game is in a great place as ever ranking 5th SG scrambling last week. Short game will be important this week.
Patrick Ranked in the top 20% for fairways gained last week, if he can drive it well this week it will free up his game considerably.
Comfortable moving the ball bother ways with the irons and of the tee which is important here at Colonial.

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🎯 Top 20 🎯

Brian Harman 6/5 Bet365
Kevin Na 6/5 Bet365
Webb Simpson 20/21 Bet365
Maverick McNealy 6/4 Bet365

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

Abraham Ancer 33/1 + 3300 BetMGM 🇺🇸 33/1 🇬🇧

2 Top 20 finishes in his last 2 visits
Top 10 for fairways found and good drives gained over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranks 4th in Bogey avoidance on tough tracks likes he faces this week.
A natural draw of the tee and with iron in hand should be beneficial.
Comfortable moving the ball both ways with his irons and real shotmaker.
A course that should suit I expect Ancer to be in contention come Sunday evening.

2. Brian Harman 50/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 45/ 1 🇬🇧

3 top 10 from 9 visits with only one missed cut.
A solid driver who is super accurate, ranked 3rd for fairways gained over the last 24 rounds.
Ranked 2nd in Par 4 scoring & 3rd on Par 4’s from 400-450 yards of which there are 7 each day.
Ranked 12th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds.
A perfect course fit for Harman. I expect a solid showing this week

3. Chris Kirk 40/1 + 4000 🇺🇸 BetMGM 45/1 🇬🇧

Arrives in consistent form and a solid showing at the PGA Championship.
Sits in the Top 10 for Par 4 scoring and SG T2G over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Has a really good wedge game and short game sure to help him contend this week.
Natural draw off the tee should suit this set up, many players comment on The draw being helpful.
Ranked in the Top 20 for fairways gained on tough driving tracks which he faces this week.

4. Webb Simpson 33/1 +3300 🇺🇸 BetMGM 45/1 🇬🇧

2 top 5’s from 6 events
A solid performance at the PGA Championship on a course that wouldn’t have suited.
A natural draw from the tee box will suit this course.
Accurate from tee box which will be a huge advantage this week.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG OTT, Approach play and driving accuracy last week so arrives with confidence.

5.Justin Rose 50/1 🇺🇸 BetMGM 66/1 🇬🇧

A winner here in 2018.
Arrives with some positives in his game ranked in the top 10 for GIR hit last week at the PGA Championship. GIR gained is the killer skill set required this week. Nothing is more important.
Ranked 3rd in Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards - 7 holes each day fall in that range.
Top 25% for fairways found and good drives over the past 24 rounds.
A Major champ, proven at the track and with some positive vibes right now makes rosey a live contender.