Butterfield Bermuda Championship
5 Minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Big Priced Plays | Best Outright Picks
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Betting Breakdown.
We are back to full-field events with a cut at the halfway stage this week, following the 2 invitational events that have taken place on the PGA Tour.
It’s not the most inspiring field this week, Denny McCarthy headlines the field, other notable players include Seamus Power, Thomas Detry, and Aaron Rai.
Port Royal is almost like having two golf courses in one. The clubhouse, positioned on the course's highest point, acts as a separating point between the majority of the front nine and the back nine. As you head away from the coast, your tee shot off the first puts you down a sharp elevation shift. As you meander through a beautiful low point, the first seven holes are largely protected from the sea breeze. The majority of the holes are initially guarded by trees, giving the impression of being on a tropical inland golf course, however, that soon changes, and as you progress up the 9th hole, you begin to appreciate what a unique piece of property you are on. The remainder of the circuit features stunning views of Bermuda's light-blue ocean and more breezy conditions facing the players. The forecast for the weekend play is quite breezy and that could have a big factor in deciding the winner of this event. I have certainly considered good wind players when making my final picks this week and I encourage you to do the same.
The course does a great job of testing your decision-making. Robert Trent Jones first designed the course in 1970, and in 2009 it was renovated by Robert Rulewich as part of a $16 million project. A short course by modern-day standards but don’t let that trick you into thinking this is a pushover for the players this week especially if the wind blows as previously mentioned.
There are bunkers staggered in such a way on practically every par 4 or hole 5 that it will make you reconsider your objective and club choices which is why this course does not favour bombers or short players off the tee, it really is one that any type of player can win on. There are numerous landing places surrounded by bunkers, ready to catch your somewhat inaccurate tee shots. It is going to be a game of patience and precision this week for the world’s best players.
Simply said, Port Royal is one of the most visually magnificent courses you will see on your screens this year how demanding it will be depending on the wind.
Let’s break down those key skill sets and reveal those all-important outright picks.
Event & Course Details
Course: Port Royal Golf Club
Location: Southampton , Bermuda
Date: Oct. 27-30 , 2022
Par: 71/ Yardage 6,842
Purse: $6.5 Million / Winner $1.2 million
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bermudagrass
Past Winner : Lucas Hebert
Scorecard
A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.
Course Layout
🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑
SG T2G- As ever on courses with limited data to reflect upon I want to start my research with T2G performance over the last 24 to 36 rounds. In what’s expected to be a low-scoring event I want players on side who are showing confidence with every club in the bag, and there’s no way better way to identify this than T2G performance over recent times.
SG Driving Accuracy - Looking at the limited data we have access to driving accuracy seems to be important, the winners here have consistently hit fairways throughout the course of the week setting up plenty of birdie opportunities with approach shots from the short stuff.
SG Approach- The single most important start on the PGA Tour is SG approach play. Considering we have very little data to analyze this week it makes sense to make this a key component of our research. I will be considering players who have proven over the last 24 to 36 rounds that the iron game is in tip-top shape.
Par 4 Scoring 350-400 - On a course with a little data to look at it makes sense to consider Par 4 scoring, especially from 350-400 yards where we have 6 holes each day. The majority of holes will fall in this category, and we want players on side with a proven track record of dominating the short Par 4’s in what I expect to be a low-scoring test.
Birdie Or Better - In a low-scoring event with a low-quality field it’s my preference to consider players who can produce plenty of birdies and are capable of producing a round of 63 or better. This allows for an average round to follow or proceed and still be in contention for the title. In these weak events like we face this week I want players onside who play aggressive and attacking golf.
Putting - Putting will always be a critical factor in low scorning tests like we expect to see this week. I will be considering players with recent Bermuda grass putting stats in their favour along with long-term Bermuda grass putting performance.
💣Big Bomb Outsiders to consider 💣
CT Pan 80/1 +8000 BetMGM
Not in stella form but this guys price is a insult to the level he has played at during his short career.A PGA Tour winner , an Olympic medal holder, not many teeing it up this week can say that.
Ranks in the top 10 for Fairways Gained over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 12th for SG T2G Over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 14th SG Approach play form this field over the past 50 rounds on tours.
Callum Tarren 66/1 + 6600 BetMGM
2 Top 10 finishes in his last 9 starts worldwide, those have come in much stronger fields than this week.
Ranked 3rd for PAR 4 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 11th for Birdies made over the past 50 rounds on tour, going low will be important this week.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Gained strokes putting in 7 of his last 9 events worldwide.
🎯 Top 20 🎯
Sam Ryder 10/3 Bet365
CT Pan 3/1 Bet365
Robby Shelton 9/5 Bet365
Adam Long 12/5 Bet365
🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲
Coming Wednesday after the 3 balls draw. Follow on Twitter- Follow Now
For an early look head over to SPORTSPUB
👊 Best Outright Picks 👊
1. Denny McCarthy 16/1 + 1600 BetMGM Free Pick
A course that rewards accurate driving should play to his strengths.
Ranked 3rd for SG PAR 3 performance over the last 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 3rd SG PAR 4 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 2nd for SG PAR 4 scoring on holes ranging from 350-400 yards in length, we have 6 of those each day this week.
The BEST putter in this field, in a weak field event on a course that should suit the fact he’s the number 1 putter is a huge bonus. I’m excited by his chances this week.
2. Aaron Rai 25/1 + 2500 BetMGM
A highly motivated player on our team this week. Aaron will be doing all he can to sneak into the Ryder Cup Team in 2023.
A course that on paper suits his game perfectly, he is one of the best on tour off the tee for accuracy, something I believe to be important this week.
Ranked 1st for Good Drives gained over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
Ranked 5th SG T2G over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked in the top 10 SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds.
The one concern his putting on the Bermuda surfaces.
3. Sam Ryder 66/1 + 6600 BETMGM
Gained strokes with his approach play 6 of his last 7 events, iron play will be critical this week.
Gained strokes putting in 6 of his last 7 events, and Bermuda is his preferred putting surface, exactly what he faces this week
Ranks in the top 25% for PAR 3 & PAR 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked in the top 10 off my overall model for the week, despite being way further down on the betting boards
Brendon Wu 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM
Ball striking and shot shaping and going low will be the order of the day this week and I believe Brendon has that in his locker.
Ranked 3rd SG Off The Tee over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
Ranked 9th PAR 4 scoring over the past 50 round son tour from this field.
Ranked 4th SG Par scoring on holes of 350-400 yards in length, we have 6 ecah day over this key distance.
Gains strokes on the Bermuda grain putting surfaces consistently, lots to like this week.
Chesson Hadley 66/1 + 6600 BetMGM
Having backed Chesson at huge odds this year in tougher events that this it’s a bet I just nearly have to make this week – we all have those players hey!
Gained strokes with his approach play in each of his last 6 events, which sets up well for this week.
Ranked in the top 20 for SGT2G Over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Ranked 3rd for PAR 3 scoring over the past 50 rounds, giving insight to his iron play and putting stroke over the past 6 months
Gained strokes putting in 8 of his last 10 events, his preferred surface is the Bermuda grain he encounters this week.
1 Points Each Way - ALL MAIN PICKS
0.5 Points - BOTH OUTSIDERS
Total - 12 Points
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