AT&T - Pebble Beach 🏖 - Preview
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2022 hasn’t yet gone off with a bang, but we are knocking on the door with yet another full place payout in Will Zalatoris at 30/1 meaning a very small loss on the week for outright selections. That’s now a 2nd 3rd and 5th in 2022. We had a fair share of good fortune in 2021 so maybe it’s only right we have some go against us.
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🏆Event Preview
⛳️Course Preview
🔑Key Skill Sets Required
📊Stats Pack
2️⃣0️⃣ Top 20 Picks
🍀 Best Outsiders to Consider
🏌️💰Best Outright Picks
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Event Overview
The No. 1 public golf course in the United States is Pebble Beach Golf Links. The magnificent coastline that stretches across California's Monterey Peninsula is truly sacred ground in the golf world.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a full-field event played over 3 different courses.The host course is Pebble Beach Golf Links, and all participants must play the course once before making the 54-hole cut. The top 25 Pro-Am teams and the top 65 professionals will compete in the final round on Sunday.
The other two rounds are held at Spyglass Hill Golf Club and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club. All 3 of the courses are under 7,000 yards long so short by PGA Tour standards. All types of players can compete this week.
The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour, measuring around 3,500 square feet. You'll want to look at the numbers for players that excel on Poa annua and have a good approach to greens. When playing at Pebble Beach, power isn't required, and the large fairways allow for more lies in the short grass to attack the smaller greens.Players with both elite level iron play and short games will have success throughout the week.
Courses
Pebble
Pebble Beach has some of the tiniest greens on the TOUR, with an average green size of about 3,500 square feet. Playing from the fairway and dialling in approach shots become more important as a result. It also has one of the lowest percentages of Greens In Regulation on the TOUR, making SG: Around The Green an important number this week.
Pebble Beach gives away the shortest average driving distance on the TOUR, forcing layups on several holes off the tee and virtually completely eliminating any advantage for longer hitters. Despite the modest length on the scorecard, this course may be a significant challenge for the field.
Monterey
On the Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill courses, there is less data to sort through. What we do know is that the Monterey Peninsula course, which was dropped from the rotation last year, is the simplest of the three and where players will need to take advantage, especially if the winds are light. Monterey Peninsula is a 6,958-yard Par-71 course comprising five Par-3 holes, four Par-5 holes, and nine Par-4 holes. The Par-5s are reachable and should provide plenty of opportunity for birdies and eagles.
Spyglass
The most difficult of the three courses, Spyglass Hill, can be the most challenging. There are five holes that are exposed to the coast, but the area is mainly tree-lined, which helps to shield it from the weather. When the winds are calm, Spyglass is the most challenging of the three tests; when the winds are strong, it is marginally easier than Pebble Beach. At 7,035 yards, this Par-72 course is the longest of the three, with four Par 4s under 400 yards on which competitors must capitalise.
Weather
It will be critical to monitor weather forecasts throughout the week to determine if any of the course rotation waves or AM/PM tee time splits have an edge.
Event & Course Details
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
3 course rotation- Pebble,Monterey,Spyglass
Location: Monterey, CA
Date: Feb. 03-06 - 2022
Par: 72 / Par 72/ Par 71
Purse: $7.8 Million / Winner $1.4 M
Fairways/Rough: Poa Annua / Ryegrass
Greens: : Poa Annua
Defending Champion: Daniel Berger
5 Key Skill Sets Required
SG approach - Approach play is one of the key metrics each and every week on the PGA TOUR and this week it will play a significant factor. As you will see on my next point there is a particular distance on approach play that the players must excel at, but wedges aside you have to be dialled in with your iron play at Pebble Beach given the green sizes are the smallest on tour.
Proximity from 75-125 Yards- Nearly double the amount of shots will come from this key distance at the pebble Beach Pro-Am this week compared to the average PGA TOUR event. This is one of the weeks on tour where all player types can win, long or short off the tee is nearly irrelevant here at Pebble Beach. This is all about attacking the small greens when you have wedges in hand.
GIR Gained - You can see the theme this week is all about approach play. As I have touched upon the greens here are particularly small, and therefore the players that hit a high amount of greens in regulation will inevitably give themselves plenty of birdie opportunities. This week isn’t about attacking every pin, it’s about controlling your iron play and hitting a high majority of greens in regulation. When we look at previous winners they have hit more greens than the average player that given week, I see it being no different this week.
SG Around the Green - The smallest greens on tour, a coastal course where the wind can blow significantly means one thing, plenty of greens will be missed and therefore your ability to get up and down will be key to success. Look at the record of somebody like Jason Day here at Pebble, he has one of the best short games over the last decade on the PGA Tour. Jordan Speith another with an outstanding short game has thrived at Pebble.
SG Putting Poa Annua - The players face the dreaded Poa Annua greens again this week on the notoriously difficult Pebble Beach putting surfaces. These green surfaces are not too many players liking. When doing my research this week I want to pay particular attention to those players have put it well on the Poa Annua surface over their career, or certainly over the last 50 rounds on tour.
Stats that matter
These are the killer stats for this week. Below ⬇️ you will see screen shots of the top 25 players in each category. Sure to help you with your own thoughts when looking to make your final selections. This is also a useful resource for those playing fantasy golf with DraftKings in the 🇺🇸 Or 🇬🇧.
Proximity to the hole on approach 75 - 125 Yards
Short Game top 25
Putting on Poa Annau Top 25
Best Outsider to consider
1. Matthew Nesmith 110/1 Bet365
2 top 20 finishes from his only starts in this event.
3rd in Proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards over the past 50 rounds on tour, a skill set sure to help him this week.
9th in SG approach over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Top 25 for GIR gained over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Sits in the top 25 for my model this week and outside the top 50 in the betting.
2. Russell Knox 80/1 Bet365
7th here last year and 3 tops 20’s in his last 4 visits
8th Proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards over the past 50 rounds on tour.
6th in GIR gained over the past 50 rounds on tour.
7th SG approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Lots in his favour if he can putt well this week.
3 . Troy Merrit 100/1 PP
8th here in 2017 , 3 top 25’s in his last 3 visits to this event.
Plays his best in windy conditions, which are very possible here at Pebble.
Gains strokes putting consistently on the Poa Annua surface
Best Outright Picks
1. Jordan Speith - 20/1 BetMGM
A winner here in 2017.
5 Top 10 finishes from 9 goes at this event.
5th in SG around the green over the past 50 rounds on tour
6th Proximity to the hole from 75-100 yards, a key distance this week.
Putts Poa Annua green well, lots to like about his chance on this set up.
2. Justin Rose 28/1 Hills
Comes here of the back of a top 10 at the farmers.
Is in the top 20 for SG approach, GIR gained , SG sand saves, SG scrambling and Proximity from 75-125 yards over his past 50 rounds on tour.
His has gained strokes putting in each of his last 5 events, often the chink in his armour, it’s appears right now he is in a good place with the flat stick.
3. Lanto Griffin 45/1 Hills
9th here on his last visit.
7th Proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Gaining 0.5 strokes in approach play each round over his last 5 event.
Gains strokes putting on the Poa Annua consistently and has of recent times.
4. Matt Fitzpatrick - 40/1 Bet365
5th on his first start of 2021 on the PGA tour, I expect he can come out hot in 2022.
A emphasis on disciplined iron play and a impeccable short game should play to his strengths.
A elite level putter when he’s on the top of his game.
His first win on US soil awaits?
5.Matthew Nesmith 110/1 Bet365
2 top 20 finishes from his only starts in this event.
3rd in Proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards over the past 50 rounds on tour, a skill set sure to help him this week.
9th in SG approach over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Top 25 for GIR gained over the past 50 rounds on tour.
Sits in the top 25 for my model this week and outside the top 50 in the betting.
1 point each way on all selections - 10 points in total
1/2 point each way on each outsider - 2 points ( Nesmith also main selection )
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