Arnold Palmer Invitational
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🏆Event Preview
⛳️Course Preview
🔑Key Skill Sets Required
📊Stats Pack
2️⃣0️⃣ Top 20 Picks
🍀 Best Outsiders to Consider
🏌️💰Best Outright Picks
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Event Overview.
The PGA Tour makes its way to Bay Hill Club and Lodge just southwest of Orlando this week. The Arnold Palmer Invitational, otherwise known as the Tiger Woods Invitational.
Arnold Palmer's development of Bay Hill and relocation to the area not only transformed Central Florida into a recreation destination prior to the opening of Disney World in 1971, but also transformed the entire state of Florida into a golfing mecca. Mr. Palmer purchased the course in 1975, and the course has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1979. Players often talk about about this event having a major feel to it. There is special feel to this event at Arnold’s place, this is one trophy outside the 4 majors that every player wants in their cabinet.
Bay Hill was given a makeover in 2015. The fairways have been widened and the number of trees have been reduced, making driving here much easier than at the other Florida Swing stops at PGA National and Copperhead. Driving Distance is now a key factor here which could go way to explaining the success of Bryson and Rory in recent times, two of the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour.Generous fairways encourage golfers to use their driver frequently, but missing fairways creates some issues, with Bay Hill ranking as one of the most difficult courses to get the ball close to the hole from the rough so player will need to compete brute strength with finesse off the tee .
The 7,454-yard, Par 72 course features a number of difficult par-4s, as well as three par-5s that are over 550 yards long but it’s Par 3’s that stand out, they are the longest of all stops on the pga tour circuit playing 199- 235yards in length. There will be high majority of shot from 200 yards plus this week. The worlds best long iron players will be licking their lips, Bay Hill provides the opportunity for them to show their ball striking prowess.
Bay Hill was the first golf course in the world to be planted with Tifway bermudagrass. The greens were re-grassed in 2015 and are larger than average, with greens averaging 7,500 square feet according to the tournament fact sheet. The putting surfaces are smooth and undulating. There are 84 sand bunkers to avoid, and water plays a role on nine of the holes.
We have seen winning scores of 4under all the way to 18under par in the last 6 years, the whether can play a huge factor in determining the score her at Bay Hill. I expect fast and firm condition this week with a winning score in the low teens.
A great week ahead with a much improved field from last year this is an event fans, player and pundits look forward to , I can’t wait for the action Thursday. A confident portfolio to attack this weeks action with can be found below.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Location: Orlando, FL
Date: March 3-6 2022.
Par: 72 / Yardage 7,454
Purse: $9.3 Million / Winner $1.67 M
Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
Greens: : Bermudagrass
Defending Champion: Bryson DeChambeau
Key Skill Sets Required
SG T2G - When we arrive on these Florida courses T2G performance is the foundation players require to tackle them. The courses are much more demanding off the tee box and in approach play than the west coast events. Look for players who excel with their ball striking and have the ability to flight the ball at different trajectories both ways with there irons. Both Niemann, Berger and Lowry have excellent trajectory control, in the case of Niemann the ability to move it both way at will with his irons so it’s no surprise to have seen them in the winners enclosure and place payouts recently.
Proximity from 200+ yards - It is expected players will face 30% off all shots this week from over 200+ yards this is significantly higher than a standard PGA tour event. We have 4 par 3’s measuring 199-235yards and then 5 - par 4’s from 450-500 yards. Look for players who are consistent with their long irons and this will dictate there fate come Sunday evening.
GIR gained - Hitting greens here is harder than the average PGA tour venue. Hitting a high percentage of greens will take pressure of other parts of the game, and in these harder events this is key. Stress free pars are vital to building solid rounds. Not the biggest green on tour, players who hit a high majority will by default give themselves plenty of birdies looks and that’s the recipe for success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Par 3 Scoring- Some of the toughest Par 3’s on the PGA Tour circuit face the players this week. This week the the Par 3’s are the longest of any the players face all year round. 199yards is the shortest of the four par 3’s on show, the second hole can play 235yards. We want to pay particular attention to players who strike there long irons well, this is not only relevant for the par 3’s but the long approaches that face the players throughout the week.
Par 5 scoring - There is four par 5’s in play this week and the successful player come Sunday evening will have certainly dominated these. When looking at the historical data it’s apparent the players must take advantage of these scoring opportunities. They can be few are far between on these Florida course especially here at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 4 of the easiest 6 holes her at Bay Hill are the par 5’s
SG Putting Bermudagrass - Having spent the majority of this year playing on the west coast, players now return to Florida swing where the Bermudagrass greens are what face the players. Although the Florida course place more emphasis on T2G and Iron play , it’s important to consider those who excel on the Bermudagrass.
Stats that matter
These are the killer stats for this week. Below ⬇️ you will see screen shots of the top 25 players in each category. Sure to help you with your own thoughts when looking to make your final selections. This is also a useful resource for those playing fantasy golf with DraftKings in the 🇺🇸 Or 🇬🇧.
Par 3 scoring
par 5 scoring
Putting
Long iron proximity
Best Outsider to consider
Lanto Griffen 80/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 80/1 8 places 🇬🇧
8 cuts in a row show the consistency in his game right now
Top 20 in Par 5 scoring and SG approach over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Top 20 in Birdies made over the past 24 rounds a key factor on this tough track
He statically putts best on Bermudagrass surfaces he faces this week.
2. Corey Conners 70/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 70/1 7 places 🇬🇧
Best placed 3rd here last year.
3rd GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tours.
Top 20 SG approach & Par 3 scoring from 200-225 yards.
If the flat stick can work Conners can compete come the back nine on Sunday.
3. Luke List 70/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 70/1 8 places 🇬🇧
Made the cut in all 4 starts here and 2 top 10s, a better player now and high on confidence with a win this year.
5th SG approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour, he is in the form of his life.
7th GIR gained over the past 24 rounds on tour, a key stat this week.
Top 15 for Par 5 scoring and Birdies made over the past 24 rounds on tour.
4. Sebastian Munoz 125/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 100/1 8 places 🇬🇧
1st in proximity to the hole from 200 yards + , 30% of shots are from this distance this week.
9th in GIR gained over the past 12 rounds on tour.
10th in birdies made over the past 24 rounds on tour.
His best putting stats is on the Bermudagrass surface he faces this week.
Best Outright Picks
Will Zalatoris 28/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 33/1 8 places 🇬🇧
10th here on debut last year.
One of the best T2G players over the past 12 month on the PGA Tour.
1st SG Approach over the past 24 rounds, which is vital on this Arnold Palmer layout.
2nd GIR gained which is a key statistic here this week.
5th Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards which will be of advantage on the long par 3’s and demanding par 4’s
7th in Bogey Avoidance a vital factor on these Florida courses.
2. Jason Kokrak 40/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 50/1 🇬🇧 6 places
1st in birdies made over the past 36 rounds on tour.
1st In SG par 3 scoring for 200- 225 yards over the past 36 rounds on tour.
7th SG approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour.
15th GIR gained over the last 36 rounds on tour
3. Marc Leishman 33/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 33/1 🇬🇧 8 places
Top 20 in bogey avoidance & Scrambling
Top 20 in proximity to the hole from 200+ yards
Top 20 in birdies made over the past 36 rounds a key skill on these tough Florida courses
Top 20 in par 3 scoring over the 200+
Putts his best on Bermudagrass surfaces.
4. Kieth Mitchell 40/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 50/1 🇬🇧
4th in scrambling over the past 50 rounds on tour.
4th on Par 5 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
9th in birdies made over the past 50 rounds on tour, making birdies on these Florida tracks is a key ingredient for success.
3rd in Par 3 scoring on holes over 200 yards , a key distance this week.
Putts best on Bermudagrass green he faces this week.
5. Sung Jae Im 30/1 BetMGM 🇺🇸 30/1 8 places 🇬🇧
Two 3rd place finishes from just 3 starts at the API.
1st in bogey avoidance over the past 24 rounds on tour.
2nd in Birdies made over the last 24 rounds on tour
3rd in GIR gained and Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards over the past 24 rounds on tour, both key factors this week with 30% of shots coming from 200+ yards out.
5th in Par 5 Scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Putts bets on the Bermudagrass he is faced with this week.
1 point EW all selections
1/2 point each way on each outsider - 2 points.
Total 12 points
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