3M Open Betting Preview

The 5 minute 3M Open Betting Guide - Used by golf fans worldwide 🌍.

Jul 19, 2022

3 outright winners in a row over 30000/1 - can we make it four ?

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3M Open Betting Preview.

All eyes return to the PGA Tour this week following The Open Championship last week in Scotland on the glorious St Andrews links. A 28/1 winner here pays the same as one at St Andrew’s, so let’s hope we continue the momentum to the lesser established event in Minnesota.

Despite the field quality drop this week, we should still see some very exciting golf with lots of risk-reward par 4’s and birdies aplenty.

In 2000, the TPC Twin Cities debuted. In 2018, the Arnold Palmer layout underwent renovations that included relocating tee complexes, enlarging fairways, and adding 72 more bunkers. On the course, there are 27 water hazards, with 10 of them being playable from the tee. The water won’t scare these players, though, they will be thinking about one thing when they stand on the tee box, and that’s "make birdies".

One of the easiest courses to drive is TPC Twin Cities, and in the inaugural competition, the average distance was well over 300 yards with an average fairway hit percentage of 65%, which is high by PGA Tour standards. If players do miss these miss wide-open fairways, the course rating is among the ten hardest on the TOUR for hitting greens from the rough. Playing from the fairways will open up plenty of enticing looks at the pin. We can expect players to go low this week.

This week's field has three OWGR top-25 players in Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, and Sungjae Im. Each of these three players has had early success with a top-15 finish here. So we may assume they've agreed to compete because they view this as an opportunity to add another PGA TOUR triumph to their careers.

Let’s see if we can rack up an incredible and almost impossible four outright winners in a row; here is to trying

Event & Course Details

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION;

•     Course: TPC Twin Cities
•     Location: Blaine, MN
•     Date: July 21-24, 2022
•     Par: 71 / Yardage 7,431
•     Purse: $6.6 Million / Winner $1.15M
•     Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass with Bluegrass/Fescue at 3”
•     Greens: Bentgrass
Champion: Cam Champ

Scorecard

A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

Course Layout

NO. 3 plays as a PAR 4 in tournament conditions, so just the three par 5’s on offer.

Video overview of every hole.

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG Off The Tee – Accuracy is important here at TPC Twin Cities, however, most important is to gain strokes off the tee in general. Combining length and accuracy here will set up a plethora of birdie opportunities, which will be required to have any chance of lifting the trophy on Sunday evening.

Driving Accuracy - TPC courses in general are friendly off the tee for the world’s best players. Hitting fairways here at TPC Twin Cities is of paramount importance, this is one of the hardest courses on tour for approach play from the rough.

Par 4 Scoring – In low-scoring affairs like we can expect this week, players have to dominate the Par 4 holes, especially the short par 4 that are 350-400 yards in length. Some of these are drivable much like with saw at the Open Championship last week. Performance on these risk-reward holes will have a huge say on who lifts that trophy Sunday evening.

Birdies or Better – Players are required to make a birdie 1 in 3 holes this week, without hitting 6/7 birdies a round, players have little chance of success come the back nine on Sunday.

SG Putting – We have had 3 renewals of the 3M Open here at TPC Twin Cities and in 2 of those the Winner has ranked 1st in SG putting on the week. Without a doubt & putting is the most important factor this week. If players don’t rank in the top 10 for SG Putting, it’s highly unlikely they will be lifting the trophy on Sunday evening.

🤞Best Outsider to consider 🤞

Wyndham Clarke 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM 50/1 🇬🇧

4 top 20 finishes in his last 7 starts worldwide.
Ranked 5th in Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 19th SG Total over the past 24 rounds showing his game is in good shape.
Gained strokes putting in each of his last 6 events, putting is the key skill set required this week in my view.

2. CT Pan 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM 66/1 🇬🇧

An accurate driver of the ball, ranked 20th on the PGA Tour I’ve the last 50 rounds.
A world class performer who has won on the PGA Tour and Olympics Silver Medalist.
Ranked 2nd in Par 3 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour, demonstrating where his iron game is right now.
Gained strokes putting in 5 of his last 6 events.

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Brendon Steel 17/10 Bet365
CT Pan 5/2 Bet365
Austin Cook 6/1 Bet365

🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲

Brendon Steele 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM

James Hahn 100/1 + 10000 BetMGM

Adam Svensson 50/1 +5000 BetMGM

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

Brendon Steele 35/1 + 3500 BetMGM

Arrives in good form with 2 top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts
Driving the ball as good as anyone in this field, Ranked 1st SG Off The Tee.
Ranked 1st in SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
The only negative is his putting however I’m willing to forgive this in the hope the bl stroking continues and if he can break even on the putting greens he has to have an outstanding chance

2. Cam Davis BetMGM 25/1

3 top 10 finishes in his last 5 events.
Gained strokes with approach play in 9 of his last 10 events.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Approach, T2G , Off The Tee & Putting.
Gained strokes putting in 8 of his last 9 events.
Trending in the right direction I expect a huge performance.

3. Maverick McNealy 22/1 + 2200 BetMGM

3 top 20 finishes in a row coming in.
Ranked in the top 20 SG Total over the past 24 rounds, showing his all round game is in good shape.
A superb putter ranked 17th on tour over the past 24 rounds.
A player on the edge of a breakthrough on the PGA, this could easily be the week.

4. CT Pan 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM

An accurate driver of the ball, ranked 20th on the PGA Tour over the last 50 rounds.
A world-class performer who has won on the PGA Tour and Olympics Medalist.
Ranked 2nd in Par 3 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour, demonstrating where his iron game is right now.
Gained strokes putting in 5 of his last 6 events.

5. Davis Riley 25/1 + 2500 BetMGM

Ranked 2nd in my overall model for the week.
Ranked 2nd in PAR 4 scoring on holes on 350-400 yards in length over the last 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 3rd in SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 9TH in SG Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds on tour.
All parts of the game are firing right now, arrives here high on confidence.