🇺🇸 US Open 🇺🇸- Betting Breakdown.
Welcome
A warm welcome 🤗 to all the new members this week. It’s amazing what a few good weeks can do. A bigger thanks 🙏 to those who have stuck with me at the start of 2022.
Another super week with 4 of the 5 main selections finishing in the top 13, including 2nd , 3rd & 6th place - Rory put on a masterclass but profit on the week and a great run from the portfolio, finding some form ahead of the big one I hope 🤞.
US Open Betting Preview.
When it comes to legendary sports venues in towns around the US, The Country Club, in the leafy suburb of Brookline, is right up there with Fenway Park as a place where great sports history has taken place and when 156 of the world’s best golfers assemble here this week for the 122nd U.S. Open, we’ll all be treated to more nostalgia in what should be an epic event.For the first time since 1988, the U.S. Open Championship will be held at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, where Curtis Strange defeated Nick Faldo in an 18-hole playoff.
In 34 years, a lot has changed: if there is a tie after 72 holes, it will not be decided in an 18-hole playoff, and the field will face a course that has been lengthened by more than 250 yards. However, yardage alone does not tell the story of the changes made to the course, which has hosted 16 previous USGA championships, beginning with the 1902 U.S. Women's Amateur. The real difference will be the playing surfaces, not the distance. The Country Club’s greens are small by modern standards, averaging only 4,388 square feet. They’ve been expanded some since 1988, but the widening out to recapture lost hole locations means that the targeted surfaces are actually more demanding and potentially can be set up in very unsettling ways to make approach play extremely challenging.
Recent changes have been overseen by Gil Hanse. He has done some work that keeps the long holes long, and the shorter holes will still be demanding. Like any U.S. Open, you’ve got to have control of your ball. It’s going to be fascinating to watch. Hanse has done work on several U.S. Open courses, including 2020 host Winged Foot Golf Club and The Los Angeles Country Club, which will host in 2023 along with a say in the recent redesign of Southern Hills which hosted the last major.
Ahead of the 2021 tournament the requirements to win this event were clear-cut: the likely champion would be under-35, in the world's top 25, had played at least three championships already (with a top 25 under his belt), and have finished top three in the year already. Jon Rahm, who then lifted the trophy, fitted the bill perfectly. This MO will be a good starting point again in 2022.
Event & Course Details
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION;
Course: Brookline Country Golf Club
Location: Brookline, MA
Date: 2022
Par: 70 / Yardage 7,264
Purse: $ Million / Winner
Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass with Poa Annua
Greens: Poa Annua mixed with bentgrass
Defending Champion: Jon Rahm
Scorecard
A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.
Course Layout
Video overview of every hole.
🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑
SG T2G -Lifting a Major Championship trophy requires elite T2G performance over four consecutive days. The foundation for stress-free golf comes from having a solid T2G game, and I want to look for players who have shown that over the past few months. This track is a long and demanding Par71 with only the 2 Par 5’s on offer which gives little rest bite to players who are fully tuned in with every club in the bag.
SG OTT - It is easy to get lost in all the "how long is the rough" chat. Thinking accuracy off the tee is imperative can be misleading, the data tells a story of power succeeding over precision despite all the noise we hear about the rough. Driving Distance has been a key attribute to success at the recent US Opens with 4 of the last 6 winners ranking in the Top 10 for Driving Distance on that given week and none of the last 7 winners ranking in the top 50 for accuracy off the tee. 5 of the last 7 winners have ranked in the top 10 for SG Off The Tee. Elite level drivers of the ball who gain strokes on the field in this skill category will have a distinct advantage this week.
SG Approach Play – The most important metric of all the SG data points. So with small greens and a Major championship challenge this week, I see no reason why approach play won’t play a key factor.
GIR gained - The last 4 winners of the US open have ranked 4th, 3rd, 1st, 5th for GIR gained on that given week. Say no more with the second smallest green on the major circuit, only behind pebble beach. Players who pepper the centre of these green creating plenty of birdie putts to the tucked pins will have enhanced chances of success.
SG Around the green – Some of the smallest green in the USA and the smallest of all tracks on the Major circuit. Players will be tested time and time again throughout the 4 days around the green. The players who rise into the top 10 this week will have outperformed the field average in this department that’s for sure.
SG Scrambling – As I have touched upon these are some of the smallest green the players will face all year round. Not only that they will be fast and firm meaning the first bounce will often see the ball skipping off greens and into the run-off areas and rough. Players are going to be scrambling 25% of the time this week. We will only be looking at players with a proven appetite for this type of test.
❌ Players to Avoid ❌
Colin Morikawa
Zero top 20 finishes in his last 5 events.
His prolific iron play is still solid but not spectacular over the past 36 rounds on tour.
His is missing plenty of fairways which was not the case 12 months back when in full control of his golf swing
2. Viktor Hovland
Still yet to prove himself in Major Championships
The second smallest green on the Major circuit mean huge about of chipping, pitching and quality putting. All of which are weaknesses in his game.
Puts to many big numbers on the card, double bogeys are an all to often occurrence.
Better Major tests lie ahead in future years.
🤞Best Outsider to consider 🤞
1. Daniel Berger 🇺🇸 50/1 + 5000 BetMGM - 50/1 Hills 🇬🇧
Struggled since blowing the lead at the Honda earlier this year. This is a test I have always had my eye on him for.
A superb driver of the ball, one of the most accurate on tour with a natural baby fade on nearly every shot.
His Iron play is improving week on week and reaching the levels he showed in 2021, ranked 21st for approach play over the past 36 rounds.
In the top 20 for good drives gained par 3 scoring & SG T2G over the past 36 rounds.
2. Corey Conners 🇺🇸 66/1 + 6600 BetMGM - 66/1 🇬🇧 Hills
A semi-finalist at the US Open amateur in 2013, one of the few players with course experience.
Arrives on the back of a solid showing at the Canadian Open, which I believe will prove good prep for players involved this week.
A superb driver of the ball who has gained strokes in each of his last 30 events off the tee, SG OTT is a key factor in determining success at a US Open.
Ranked 8th in GIR gained on difficult golf courses over the past 36 rounds, it’s a difficult track with tiny greens he faces this week.
The weakness is his putting on Poa Annua, he only needs the flat stick to fire this once and he will have a great chance of outrunning his odds
3. Abraham Ancer 🇺🇸 66/1 + 6600 BetMGM - 80/1 🇬🇧 Unibet
A player who has performed on though tests, very much like he will, face this week.
A really accurate driver of the ball, ranked 7th for good drives gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
His approach play hasn’t been at his very best but still ranks 23rd of all players teeing it up this week, he also ranks 3rd for proximity to the hole over the last 36 rounds
He’s ranked in the top 10 for par 3 and par 4 scoring over the past 36 rounds.
The US Open is a test that should suit his style of play.
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🎯 Top 20 🎯
Jon Rahm - 4/5 Bet365
Sungjea Im - 2/1 Bet365
Shane Lowry - 13/10 - Bet365
Abraham Ancer - 14/5 Bet365
🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲
Keegan Bradley 75/1 6 places
Tony Finau 50/1 6 places
👊 Best Outright Picks 👊
1.Justin Thomas + 14/1 + 1400 🇺🇸 BetMGM - 12/1 Uk 🇬🇧 Hills
2 top 10’s in the US Open from 7 attempts
Arrives here on the back of a major win and he game seems to be getting better each and every week, finished 3rd last week where he lead the field with iron play and 2nd in GIR gained.
Ranked 12th for SG off the tee over the past 36 rounds, which is often a weakness in his game.
Ranked in the top 10 for SG around the green, scrambling and save saves over the past 36 rounds on tour.
No weakness in his game high on confidence and will relish the opportunity to win the toughest test in the game the US Open. JT will be a man on a mission.
2. Jordan Speith 25/1 + 2500 🇺🇸 BetMGM 25/1 🇬🇧 Hills
US Open winner in 2015, been there, done it, bought the T-Shirt.
Hitting the ball as well T2G as he did back 2017/18.
Ranked 3rd for SG T2G over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 3rd for SG scrambling & 5th for SG around the green shows the state of his short game right now
Ranked 9th in Approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour.
If the driver works this week which is has of late 15th for SG off the tee over the past 36 rounds, Jordan has to have a great chance.
3. Shane Lowry 33/1 + 3300 usa 🇺🇸 BetMGM 40/1 🇬🇧 365 boost
2 top 10’s at The US Open, with a best placed 2nd.
In the most consistent form of his career 6 top 20’s in his last 8 starts, 4 of those top 10’s
Ranked 1st in Bogey Avoidance over the past 36 rounds on tour, a key attribute heading into a US Open.
Ranked 7th for SG Scrambling another key attribute required to be successful at US Open’s
Ranked 6th in both SG approach play and GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
If Shane brings his current game to the party this week it’s hard to see him not being a factor at the top of the leaderboard.
4. Patrick Cantley + 25/1 + 2500 🇺🇸 BetMGM - 28/1 🇬🇧 Hills
Arrives in good form with a 2nd & 3rd place finish in his last 3 starts.
A super driver of the ball, long and straight, ranks in the top 10% for SG off the tee in this field.
No weakness in his game a solid scrambler and good underrated short game in and around the greens.
His gains strokes on the Poa Annua putting surfaces this week with form at places like pebble to match which also boasts super small greens like he faces this week.
5. SungJae Im 40/1 +4000 🇺🇸 BetMGM 66/1 🇬🇧 Unibet
Ranked 22nd in the world he fits the recent criteria of having to be in the worlds top 25, under 35 years of age and played in 3 US opens previously.
A superb driver of the ball, which is advantageous at all US Open venues, 3rd in good drives gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
Ranked 2nd in Bogey Avoidance over the past 36 rounds on tour, a skill set that will set him up well this week.
Ranked 4th in SG scrambling over the past 36 rounds on tour
Ranked in the top 20% for approach play and GIR gained over the past 36 rounds on tour.
2 points each way all main selections - 20
0.5 point Each Way on each outsider - 3 points
Total 23 points
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