🚀 Rocket Mortgage Classic 🚀

5 minute Betting Newsletter | Course Guide | Key Stats | Best Picks | Big Outsiders

Jul 25, 2022

Rocket Mortgage Betting Preview.

For the 3rd year running, players head to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Last year this was the venue for the incredible 1 -2, with Cam Davis winning at 150/1 and Troy Merrit runner up at 125/1. It’s doubtful the feat will be repeated this year, but I will give it a shot. Low Scoring venues like this can often throw up winners at huge prices, given the event is very much a putting contest.

The course this week is a Par 72 test at 7,370 yards and a standard layout of 4 par-3s, 10-par-4s and 4 par-5s. Designed by the great Donald Ross, the course rewards real good iron play. Albeit long on paper, the course plays much shorter. The course's par-5s measure 635 yards, 552 yards, 555 yards, and 577 yards, respectively, meaning three of them can be reached in 2 by the world’s best. The top 10 come Sunday will dominate the par 5 holes. The par-4s will give up plenty of birdies, the first, fourth, eighth, and thirteenth are all less than 400 yards, so these holes are there for the taking. Short Par 4’s and a long Par 5 of over 6oo yards means there will be plenty of wedge play on show this week. Detroit’s fairway lays are uneven, and the green complexes include numerous front-to-back contoured with significant undulations, in keeping with Donald Ross design classics. However, the course poses very few fears to the world's best, and all the players are thinking is ‘how low can we go’. Overall, the course plays short for the world’s best players with a high amount of wedge shots over the four days, more than a standard PGA Tour event. Expect to see plenty of birdies, eagles and putts holed from everywhere.

Let’s break down those key skill sets required to lift the trophy aloft on Sunday evening.

Event & Course Details

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION;

•     Course: Detroit Golf Club (North)
•     Location: Detroit, MI
•     Date: July 28th – August 1st
•     Par: 72 / Yardage 7,370
•     Purse: $7.5 Million / Winner $1.35 M
•     Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass / poa annua
•     Greens: Bentgrass / poa annua

Defending Champion: Cam Davis 2021

Scorecard

A breakdown of this week’s scorecards - those betting in running would be encouraged to pay attention to those holes that give up plenty of birdies and bogeys.

Course Layout

Video overview of every hole.

🔑 Key Skill Sets Required 🔑

SG T2G – In these low scoring events, players must gain strokes over their competitors in general T2G play. When starting my research, I want player onside who are dialed in T2G over the past 24/36 rounds showing the core parts of their game is firing on all cylinders.

Proximity 75-100 Yards- TPC courses, in general, are friendly off the tee for the world’s best players. This sets up plenty of shots from 75-100 yards especially this week as we have plenty of short par 4’s and a super long par 5 which will mean 75% of the player using awedge for their 3rd shot. 40% of shots this week will be from less than 150 yards. Wedge play is key this week.

Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards – In low-scoring affairs, like we can expect this week, players have to dominate the Par 4 holes, especially the short par 4 that are 350-400 yards in length. We have 4 of those this week. Performance on these risk-reward holes will have a massive say on who lifts that trophy Sunday evening.

Birdies or Better – We can expect a winning score lower than 20 under par this week. Players are required to make a birdie 1 in 3 holes this week. Without hitting 6/7 birdies a round, players have little chance of success come the back nine on Sunday.

SG Putting – We have had 3 renewals of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club. Without a doubt & putting is the most important factor this week. Much like last week, if players don’t rank in the top 10 for SG Putting, it’s improbable they will be lifting the trophy on Sunday evening.BDC ranked 1st in 2020 and Nate Lashley 2nd in 2019.

🤞Best Outsider to consider 🤞

1. Nick Hardy 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM 90/1 🇬🇧

A serious young talent who hits its miles off the tee, much like the last 2 winners here.
A top 10 2 events back at The Travelers and a Top 20 at the US Open.
Gains strokes consistently in all key skill stat areas T2G, Approach, Around The Green.
Putts his best on the surfaces he faces this week.

2. Patrick Rodgers 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM 100/1 🇬🇧

A volatile player who has shows signs a big performance is around the corner.
Gained strokes T2G in 8 of his last 10 events.
Gained strokes with Approach play in 7 of his last 9 events.
Ranked 2nd in SG Putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Long off the tee much like the 2020 & 2021 winners of this event, if the flat stick performs as it has of recent times I can see him out running his odds.

3. Chesson Hadley 125/1 +12500 BetMGM 160/1 🇬🇧

4 top 10 finishes in his last 5 events shows his game is peaking right now, the most consistent his game has been for years.
He is an aggressive golfer who makes plenty of birdies.
Ranks in the top 20 for Par 4 scoring on holes 350-400 yards in length.
Ranks in the top 20 for SG Putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranks in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 24 rounds.
Now is surely the time to support Chesson

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Will Zalatoris 21/20 - Bet365
Cam Davis 13/8 - Bet365
CT Pan 7/2 - Bet365

🎲 1st Round Leader 🎲

Cam Davis 45/1 - Bet365
Chesson Hadley 90/1 - Bet365

👊 Best Outright Picks 👊

Will Zalatoris 16/1 +1600 BetMGM

Arrives in good form with 2 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts
Driving the ball as good as anyone in this field and is the arguable the number 1 T2G player teeing it up this week.
Ranked 1st in birdies made over the past 24 rounds on tour.
The only negative is his putting however I’m willing to forgive this. If he can break even on the putting greens, he must have an outstanding chance on lift his first PGA Tour trophy.

2. Cam Davis 33/1 + 3300 BetMGM

3 top 10 finishes in his last 6 events.
Ranked 1st in Proximity to the hole 75-100 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Gained strokes with approach play in 10 of his last 11 events.
Ranked in the top 20 for SG Approach, T2G, Off The Tee & Putting.
Gained strokes putting in 9 of his last 10 events.
Trending in the right direction I expect a huge performance.

3. Chris Kirk 45/1 + 4500 BetMGM

2 top 10 finishes in his last 6 starts shows his game is close, he has also made 8 cuts a row which shows the consistency in his game
Gaining strokes in all the key skill stat areas over his last 5 events on tour.
Ranked 7TH for Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 8th for proximity to the hole from 100 – 125 yards a key distance this week which over 40% of shots coming from inside 150 yards.
Ranked 9th for overall T2G performance over the past 24 rounds.

4. Nick Hardy 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM 90/1 🇬🇧

A serious young talent who hits its miles off the tee, much like the last 2 winners here.
A top 10 2 events back at The Travelers and a Top 20 at the US Open.
Gains strokes consistently in all key skill stat areas T2G, Approach, Around The Green.
Putts his best on the surfaces he faces this week.

5.Wyndham Clarke 80/1 + 8000 BetMGM

4 top 20 finishes in his last 8 starts worldwide.
Ranked 6th in Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Ranked 19th SG Total over the past 24 rounds showing his game is in good shape.
Ranked 17th SG Putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
Gained strokes putting in each of his last 6 events, putting is the key skill set required this week in my view.